Language:English
Jenson Brooksby v Sebastian Baez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jenson Brooksby (Local)
Prediction 24.99%4.00fair odd
EV +0.207%
Edge +0.052%
Kelly +0.069%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.76%25.06%24.98%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.804.0128.57%26.61%26.32%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Baez (Visit)
Prediction 75.01%1.33fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -5.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.62%74.94%75.02%76.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3181.97%78.91%78.74%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jenson Brooksby (Local): 24.99%; Sebastian Baez (Visit): 75.01%. For Jenson Brooksby (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.207%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV +0.207%E +0.052%K +0.069%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 08:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.043%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-06 07:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.043%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -2.54%E -0.652%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.24%E -2.51%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-06 07:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.54%E -0.652%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.54%E -0.652%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 08:48 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.54%E -0.652%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.49%E -4.35%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.54%E -0.652%K -0.876%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 07:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.79%E -0.985%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.49%E -4.35%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 08:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.79%E -0.985%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.49%E -4.35%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.79%E -0.985%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.49%E -4.35%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.79%E -0.985%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.49%E -4.35%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -4.29%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -3.99%E -3.11%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-06 08:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -4.29%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -3.99%E -3.11%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-06 08:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV -4.54%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.61%EV -2.49%E -1.91%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-06 08:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -4.54%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 07:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.49%E -4.35%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-06 03:58 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -5.04%E -1.33%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.49%E -6.96%K -38.58%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -1.74%E -1.33%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-06 07:48 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.24%E -2.51%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-06 08:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.24%E -2.51%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-06 07:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 03:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 07:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -6.29%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.74%E -6.29%K -33.64%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 08:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.99%E -3.11%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 03:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.49%E -4.35%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-06 03:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.54%E -2.04%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-06 03:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -8.79%E -2.41%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-06 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.79%E -2.41%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-06 08:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.79%E -2.41%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-06 08:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.22%EV -9.29%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.78%EV -3.24%E -2.51%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 03:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.24%E -2.51%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 03:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.24%E -2.51%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 04:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.24%E -2.51%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 03:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.24%E -2.51%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 03:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.99%E -3.11%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 03:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.99%E -3.11%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 08:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.74%E -3.73%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-06 03:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.49%E -4.35%K -21.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 08:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-06 03:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-06 03:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.04%E -2.79%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-06 07:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -12.54%E -3.58%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.24%E -4.99%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-06 03:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-05-06 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-05-06 08:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-05-06 08:15 |
| Novig◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61% | 2.5% | 2026-05-06 07:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38% | 2.8% | 2026-05-06 08:55 |