Language:English
Jannik Sinner v Alexei Popyrin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jannik Sinner (Local)
Prediction 94.66%1.06fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -83.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.59%94.52%94.65%96.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.03100.00%98.67%99.01%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexei Popyrin (Visit)
Prediction 5.34%18.73fair odd
EV +49.49%
Edge +1.77%
Kelly +1.83%
Growth +0.907%
assuming max odds 28.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.48%5.48%5.35%8.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0017.0815.8828.009.09%5.85%6.30%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jannik Sinner (Local): 94.66%; Alexei Popyrin (Visit): 5.34%. For Alexei Popyrin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.73. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +49.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.52%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.48%EV +49.49%E +1.77%K +1.83%G +0.907% | 2.6% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.31%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 26.59I 3.76%NM 3.69%EV +41.97%E +1.58%K +1.64%G +0.688% | 1.8% | 2026-05-11 13:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +38.82%E +1.49%K +1.55%G +0.603% | 2.9% | 2026-05-11 13:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.34%E -5.34%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +38.82%E +1.49%K +1.55%G +0.603% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.34%E -5.34%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +38.82%E +1.49%K +1.55%G +0.603% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.34%E -5.34%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +38.82%E +1.49%K +1.55%G +0.603% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.34%E -5.34%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +38.82%E +1.49%K +1.55%G +0.603% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +22.80%E +0.991%K +1.04%G +0.236% | 3.4% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.65%EV -5.34%E -5.34%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.35%EV +17.46%E +0.794%K +0.831%G +0.145% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +12.12%E +0.577%K +0.606%G +0.073% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 13:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +12.12%E +0.577%K +0.606%G +0.073% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +6.78%E +0.339%K +0.357%G +0.024% | 3.0% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +6.78%E +0.339%K +0.357%G +0.024% | 4.0% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +6.78%E +0.339%K +0.357%G +0.024% | 4.0% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +1.44%E +0.076%K +0.080%G +0.001% | 3.3% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +1.44%E +0.076%K +0.080%G +0.001% | 3.3% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +1.44%E +0.076%K +0.080%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +1.44%E +0.076%K +0.080%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +1.44%E +0.076%K +0.080%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV -3.90%E -0.216%K -0.229%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-11 12:58 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.67%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 17.93I 5.58%NM 5.33%EV -4.27%E -0.238%K -0.252%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.67%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 17.93I 5.58%NM 5.33%EV -4.27%E -0.238%K -0.252%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.45%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 17.20I 5.81%NM 5.55%EV -8.17%E -0.475%K -0.504%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -2.50%E -2.43%K -83.31%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV -9.24%E -0.543%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -9.24%E -0.543%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -9.24%E -0.543%K -0.577%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -14.57%E -0.911%K -0.972%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.97%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 15.75I 6.35%NM 6.03%EV -15.91%E -1.01%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 13:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -19.91%E -1.33%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -19.91%E -1.33%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.53%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 14.75I 6.78%NM 6.47%EV -21.25%E -1.44%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-11 13:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -23.92%E -1.68%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -25.25%E -1.80%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -25.25%E -1.80%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.45%E -3.38%K -172.29%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -30.59%E -2.35%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -33.26%E -2.66%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -33.26%E -2.66%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 12:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -41.27%E -3.75%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -4.39%E -4.35%K -439.25%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -41.27%E -3.75%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-11 13:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32% | 0.4% | 2026-05-11 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32% | 0.4% | 2026-05-11 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55% | 0.7% | 2026-05-11 13:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.49% | 28.01I 3.57%NM 3.51% | 1.6% | 2026-05-11 13:34 |
| Novig◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.27% | 26.32I 3.80%NM 3.73% | 1.8% | 2026-05-11 13:39 |