A Escola das Odds

Valentin Vacherot v Nuno Borges

Início: 2026-03-07 22:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

55 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Valentin Vacherot (Local)

Previsão 57.28%1.75odd justa
EV -0.331%
Vantagem -0.190%
Kelly -0.447%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.74

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
54.55%57.04%57.40%61.63%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.551.651.651.7464.52%60.56%60.61%57.47%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Nuno Borges (Visitante)

Previsão 42.72%2.34odd justa
EV +6.37%
Vantagem +2.56%
Kelly +4.28%
Crescimento +0.272%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.49

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.37%42.96%42.60%45.45%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.042.222.232.4949.02%45.10%44.84%40.16%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (55 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
1xBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.63%EV -11.21%E -7.23%K -20.39%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.37%EV +6.37%E +2.56%K +4.28%G +0.272%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -3.77%E -2.24%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -1.75%E -0.759%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-07 21:49
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -1.75%E -0.759%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-07 21:50
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.75%E -0.759%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 21:47
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -11.21%E -7.23%K -20.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -1.75%E -0.759%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 21:50
Unibet (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -6.06%E -3.69%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -2.17%E -0.949%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-07 21:44
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -2.60%E -1.14%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 21:49
SportsBet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -6.06%E -3.69%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -3.46%E -1.53%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 21:50
Betclic (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 58.70%EV -8.92%E -5.61%K -15.12%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.30%EV -3.46%E -1.53%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 21:38
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 21:50
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:43
Unibet (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
Unibet (NL)1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
ATG (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
betPARX1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
Svenska Spel1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
GTbets1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 21:35
Betway1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 21:49
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.88%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 21:49
Bet Right1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -4.31%E -1.92%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-07 21:49
LowVig.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -2.62%E -1.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-07 21:50
BetOnline.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -2.62%E -1.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-07 21:49
LeoVegas (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:50
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:50
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:49
LiveScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:50
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:50
Bally Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -4.74%E -2.12%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 21:50
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -5.59%E -2.53%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 21:50
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 21:49
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 21:44
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 21:50
Betsson1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 21:50
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 21:50
Betr (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.06%E -3.69%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 21:49
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -6.63%E -4.07%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 21:49
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 21:50
TAB1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 21:49
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 21:50
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 21:50
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.35%E -5.22%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 21:38
Fliff1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -6.02%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 21:50
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.19%E -1.89%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.15%E -3.79%K -7.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 21:49
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.34%E -2.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.15%E -3.79%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 21:49
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.15%E -3.79%K -7.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 21:49
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.15%E -3.79%K -7.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 21:49
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.15%E -3.79%K -7.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 21:50
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -0.331%E -0.190%K -0.447%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -10.29%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 21:49
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -1.48%E -0.858%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -10.29%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 21:49
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.05%E -1.20%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -10.29%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 21:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.29%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 21:49
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.49%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.29%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 21:49
Codere (IT)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -2.62%E -1.54%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -12.85%E -6.30%K -12.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 21:46
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%0.2%2026-03-07 21:50
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%0.2%2026-03-07 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-03-07 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-03-07 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-03-07 21:49
Novig1.70I 58.82%NM 57.82%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.18%1.7%2026-03-07 21:50