Language:English
Joao Fonseca v Jannik Sinner
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joao Fonseca (Local)
Prediction 11.12%8.99fair odd
EV +11.21%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.140%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.50%11.15%11.18%13.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.348.0010.0014.29%11.99%12.50%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jannik Sinner (Visit)
Prediction 88.88%1.13fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -34.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.74%88.85%88.82%90.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.071.071.0997.09%93.40%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joao Fonseca (Local): 11.12%; Jannik Sinner (Visit): 88.88%. For Joao Fonseca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.99. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +11.21%E +1.12%K +1.25%G +0.140% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.68%E -6.36%K -133.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 9.86I 10.14%NM 9.95%EV +9.66%E +0.979%K +1.09%G +0.105% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.05%EV -3.12%E -2.86%K -34.69%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.94%EV +6.77%E +0.705%K +0.787%G +0.053% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.06%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.21%EV +5.65%E +0.595%K +0.665%G +0.038% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.79%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +5.65%E +0.595%K +0.665%G +0.038% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 00:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +5.65%E +0.595%K +0.665%G +0.038% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +5.65%E +0.595%K +0.665%G +0.038% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.13%EV +4.54%E +0.483%K +0.541%G +0.025% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.87%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV +2.87%E +0.311%K +0.348%G +0.010% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.89%EV -7.57%E -7.28%K -189.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.51%EV +2.32%E +0.252%K +0.283%G +0.007% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.49%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.80%EV +0.093%E +0.010%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.20%EV -3.12%E -2.86%K -34.69%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV +0.093%E +0.010%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +0.093%E +0.010%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV +0.093%E +0.010%K +0.012%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -8.46%E -8.21%K -281.84%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-11 00:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.75%EV -2.13%E -0.242%K -0.273%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.25%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-11 00:56 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.76I 11.42%NM 10.98%EV -2.58%E -0.294%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.02%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.76I 11.42%NM 10.98%EV -2.58%E -0.294%K -0.332%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.02%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.55I 11.70%NM 11.12%EV -4.91%E -0.574%K -0.651%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.88%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 8.52I 11.74%NM 11.16%EV -5.25%E -0.616%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.84%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -5.47%E -0.643%K -0.729%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -5.47%E -0.643%K -0.729%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 00:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -5.47%E -0.643%K -0.729%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -5.47%E -0.643%K -0.729%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.42%EV -7.69%E -0.927%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.58%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -8.25%E -1.000%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -8.25%E -1.000%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.39%EV -8.25%E -1.000%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.61%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.54%EV -8.80%E -1.07%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.46%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 00:56 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 00:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -11.03%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 00:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -16.59%E -2.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -16.59%E -2.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -16.59%E -2.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.01%E -3.71%K -50.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -16.59%E -2.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -16.59%E -2.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -16.59%E -2.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -16.59%E -2.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -16.59%E -2.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -5.79%E -5.46%K -96.48%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -22.15%E -3.16%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -4.90%E -4.58%K -70.00%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.52% | 0.4% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.52% | 0.4% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.52% | 0.4% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.52% | 0.4% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Novig◎ | 10.10I 9.90%NM 9.82% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.18% | 0.8% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.33% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 90.67% | 2.1% | 2026-03-11 01:00 |