Language:English
Gabriel Diallo v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gabriel Diallo (Local)
Prediction 23.05%4.34fair odd
EV +2.56%
Edge +0.576%
Kelly +0.743%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 4.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.01%23.28%22.93%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.034.004.4527.78%24.83%25.00%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit)
Prediction 76.95%1.30fair odd
EV -0.732%
Edge -0.567%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.62%76.72%77.07%78.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.251.251.2985.47%80.24%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gabriel Diallo (Local): 23.05%; Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit): 76.95%. For Gabriel Diallo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV +2.56%E +0.576%K +0.743%G +0.019% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.48%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV +1.41%E +0.321%K +0.415%G +0.006% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV +1.41%E +0.321%K +0.415%G +0.006% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.97%E -8.52%K -58.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.46%EV +0.258%E +0.059%K +0.077%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.54%EV -3.04%E -2.41%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV +0.258%E +0.059%K +0.077%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -0.203%E -0.047%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -0.894%E -0.208%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.58%E -3.69%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -0.894%E -0.208%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 00:51 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.56%EV -1.12%E -0.262%K -0.342%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.44%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.05%E -0.482%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.58%E -3.69%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 00:26 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.05%E -0.482%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.05%E -0.482%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.20%E -0.762%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.20%E -0.762%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.20%E -0.762%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.20%E -0.762%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.20%E -0.762%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -4.12%E -0.991%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -4.12%E -0.991%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -4.35%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.58%E -3.69%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -4.35%E -1.05%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.14%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.50%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.58%E -3.69%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -5.50%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.50%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.50%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -6.66%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.35%E -4.35%K -23.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -6.66%E -1.64%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -7.12%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -3.04%E -2.41%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -7.81%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.81%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.81%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.81%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.81%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.81%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.81%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.58%E -3.69%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.81%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.58%E -3.69%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -10.11%E -2.59%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.27%E -1.79%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -12.42%E -3.27%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -12.42%E -3.27%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -12.42%E -3.27%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.58%E -3.69%K -19.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.57%E -3.62%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.57%E -3.62%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.57%E -3.62%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -13.57%E -3.62%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.12%E -5.02%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -14.72%E -3.98%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -14.72%E -3.98%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -3.81%E -3.05%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -17.03%E -4.73%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -0.732%E -0.567%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -17.03%E -4.73%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -3.04%E -2.41%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-09 00:28 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 1.1% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13% | 1.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13% | 1.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13% | 1.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Novig◎ | 4.39I 22.78%NM 22.30% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.70% | 2.1% | 2026-03-09 00:29 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01% | 3.4% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |