Language:English
Francisco Cerundolo v Jack Draper
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francisco Cerundolo (Local)
Prediction 36.90%2.71fair odd
EV +1.48%
Edge +0.540%
Kelly +0.848%
Growth +0.013%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.47%36.99%36.90%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.522.502.7542.02%39.69%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jack Draper (Visit)
Prediction 63.10%1.58fair odd
EV +0.324%
Edge +0.204%
Kelly +0.549%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%63.01%63.10%65.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.511.511.5970.42%66.25%66.23%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Cerundolo (Local): 36.90%; Jack Draper (Visit): 63.10%. For Francisco Cerundolo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.48%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +1.48%E +0.540%K +0.848%G +0.013% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.51%E -5.87%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 20:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV -0.361%E -0.134%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -3.46%E -2.26%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -0.361%E -0.134%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -10.40%E -7.33%K -24.77%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -1.10%E -0.410%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -5.99%E -4.02%K -12.22%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -2.21%E -0.833%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -4.09%E -2.69%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -2.21%E -0.833%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -8.51%E -5.87%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 20:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -2.58%E -0.976%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -7.25%E -4.93%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.31%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.31%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.14%E -6.35%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-09 20:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.31%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.14%E -6.35%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.31%E -1.26%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.14%E -6.35%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-09 20:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.05%E -1.56%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.05%E -1.56%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.05%E -1.56%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 20:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.05%E -1.56%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -8.51%E -5.87%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -4.79%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.90%E -2.31%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-09 20:08 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.90%E -2.31%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.09%E -2.69%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 20:21 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.90%E -2.31%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 20:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.90%E -2.31%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 20:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.90%E -2.31%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.90%E -2.31%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-09 20:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.20%E -1.42%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-09 19:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.20%E -1.42%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-09 19:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-09 20:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.09%E -2.69%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -4.72%E -3.13%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 20:21 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 19:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 19:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -7.25%E -4.93%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-09 19:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -7.74%E -3.10%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -9.77%E -6.83%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-09 20:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -8.11%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV +0.324%E +0.204%K +0.549%G +0.002% | 3.1% | 2026-03-09 20:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -8.11%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV +0.324%E +0.204%K +0.549%G +0.002% | 3.1% | 2026-03-09 20:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.52%EV -8.11%E -3.26%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.48%EV -1.57%E -1.01%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-09 19:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -2.20%E -1.42%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 20:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 20:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -2.83%E -1.84%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -8.48%E -3.42%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -4.09%E -2.69%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 20:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -9.59%E -3.91%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -6.62%E -4.47%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -9.59%E -3.91%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -8.51%E -5.87%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-09 20:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -10.33%E -4.25%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -3.46%E -2.26%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -10.33%E -4.25%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -4.09%E -2.69%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-09 19:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -10.33%E -4.25%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -4.09%E -2.69%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -10.33%E -4.25%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.68%EV -4.72%E -3.13%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -11.43%E -4.76%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -1.57%E -1.01%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 20:08 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -11.43%E -4.76%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -4.09%E -2.69%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 19:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -11.43%E -4.76%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -4.09%E -2.69%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 19:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.43%E -4.76%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -12.17%E -5.11%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -0.938%E -0.597%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-09 19:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -12.17%E -5.11%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -3.46%E -2.26%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 20:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -12.17%E -5.11%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -5.35%E -3.57%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 0.4% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 0.4% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68% | 0.4% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 0.6% | 2026-03-09 20:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.85% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.15% | 2.6% | 2026-03-09 20:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30% | 3.0% | 2026-03-09 20:20 |