Language:English
Francisco Cerundolo v Benjamin Bonzi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francisco Cerundolo (Local)
Prediction 68.50%1.46fair odd
EV +2.75%
Edge +1.84%
Kelly +5.51%
Growth +0.152%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%68.39%68.81%74.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.371.361.5081.97%72.90%73.53%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Benjamin Bonzi (Visit)
Prediction 31.50%3.17fair odd
EV +14.97%
Edge +4.10%
Kelly +5.65%
Growth +0.845%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%31.61%31.19%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.503.023.003.6540.00%33.15%33.33%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Cerundolo (Local): 68.50%; Benjamin Bonzi (Visit): 31.50%. For Benjamin Bonzi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.97%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -16.43%E -13.46%K -74.67%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV +14.97%E +4.10%K +5.65%G +0.845% | 9.4% | 2026-03-07 19:12 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -10.95%E -8.42%K -36.49%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV +8.67%E +2.51%K +3.54%G +0.307% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 19:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -12.32%E -9.62%K -43.99%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV +8.67%E +2.51%K +3.54%G +0.307% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 19:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -11.63%E -9.02%K -40.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +7.09%E +2.09%K +2.95%G +0.210% | 6.9% | 2026-03-06 15:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.85%EV -6.15%E -4.49%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%EV +4.89%E +1.47%K +2.10%G +0.102% | 3.0% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -8.89%E -6.69%K -26.94%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV +4.57%E +1.38%K +1.97%G +0.090% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 18:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -8.21%E -6.12%K -24.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +3.94%E +1.19%K +1.71%G +0.068% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 01:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -8.21%E -6.12%K -24.14%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +3.94%E +1.19%K +1.71%G +0.068% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 01:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.89%E -6.69%K -26.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.94%E +1.19%K +1.71%G +0.068% | 5.5% | 2026-03-07 11:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +2.37%E +0.728%K +1.05%G +0.025% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 17:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +2.37%E +0.728%K +1.05%G +0.025% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 17:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -8.21%E -6.12%K -24.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV +2.37%E +0.728%K +1.05%G +0.025% | 5.4% | 2026-03-07 17:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%EV -8.21%E -6.12%K -24.14%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%EV +2.05%E +0.633%K +0.916%G +0.019% | 5.5% | 2026-03-07 19:02 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -8.21%E -6.12%K -24.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +0.792%E +0.248%K +0.360%G +0.003% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 18:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.783%E -0.248%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -8.21%E -6.12%K -24.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -0.783%E -0.248%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 18:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.62%EV -6.15%E -4.49%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.38%EV -1.10%E -0.350%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.36%E -0.760%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 19:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.36%E -0.760%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.36%E -0.760%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 18:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.36%E -0.760%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 18:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.93%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.93%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.93%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.93%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.15%E -4.49%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -3.93%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -3.93%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-07 17:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.52%E -5.57%K -21.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 19:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.52%E -5.57%K -21.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 09:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.52%E -5.57%K -21.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 09:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.52%E -5.57%K -21.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.89%E -6.69%K -26.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.51%E -1.84%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.08%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.08%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.08%E -2.40%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.66%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -5.47%E -3.96%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -9.29%E -3.22%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.29%E -3.22%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -10.23%E -3.59%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 19:08 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -10.23%E -3.59%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.81%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.84%E -5.03%K -18.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -11.81%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.38%E -4.87%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.38%E -4.87%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.38%E -4.87%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.10%E -2.93%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.38%E -4.87%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV +1.38%E +0.935%K +2.88%G +0.040% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -14.96%E -5.54%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -0.671%E -0.463%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -14.96%E -5.54%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.04%E -1.43%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.96%E -5.54%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -2.73%E -1.92%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.96%E -5.54%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -2.73%E -1.92%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -18.11%E -6.96%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV +2.07%E +1.39%K +4.22%G +0.087% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.52%EV -18.42%E -7.11%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +2.75%E +1.84%K +5.51%G +0.152% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -21.26%E -8.50%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 0.9% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.7% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64% | 1.8% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.88% | 2.7% | 2026-03-07 19:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.75% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.25% | 6.2% | 2026-03-07 19:19 |