Language:English
Flavio Cobolli v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Flavio Cobolli (Local)
Prediction 44.82%2.23fair odd
EV +3.08%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +2.37%
Growth +0.073%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%44.58%44.88%46.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.122.3050.00%47.03%47.17%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 55.18%1.81fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.76%55.42%55.12%58.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.721.7661.73%58.31%58.14%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Flavio Cobolli (Local): 44.82%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 55.18%. For Flavio Cobolli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV +3.08%E +1.34%K +2.37%G +0.073% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -9.50%E -5.79%K -14.84%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +0.838%E +0.373%K +0.671%G +0.006% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -10.60%E -6.55%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -0.058%E -0.026%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.40%E -0.638%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -1.40%E -0.638%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.74%E -3.99%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.40%E -0.638%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.84%E -4.70%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.40%E -0.638%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.84%E -4.70%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.40%E -0.638%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.84%E -4.70%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 17:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.40%E -0.638%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.84%E -4.70%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 17:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.40%E -0.638%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.84%E -4.70%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 18:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -1.40%E -0.638%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.95%E -5.42%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -2.30%E -1.05%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.20%E -1.48%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.64%E -1.69%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.43%E -1.96%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-09 00:51 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.64%E -1.69%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.74%E -3.99%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.09%E -1.91%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.09%E -1.91%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -4.54%E -2.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -4.54%E -2.13%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.53%E -2.62%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 11:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.53%E -2.62%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.99%E -2.35%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -5.44%E -2.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -4.53%E -2.62%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 21:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -5.44%E -2.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -4.53%E -2.62%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 21:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -5.44%E -2.58%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -4.53%E -2.62%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 21:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -2.88%E -1.64%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-08 21:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 21:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 21:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 11:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.53%E -2.62%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 11:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-08 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 10:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 14:48 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-09 00:48 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -6.74%E -3.99%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.88%E -2.80%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.84%E -4.70%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -6.33%E -3.03%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 21:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -7.23%E -3.49%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-08 21:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -7.68%E -3.73%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -5.64%E -3.30%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 00:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.13%E -3.96%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.98%E -2.29%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.13%E -3.96%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 10:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.13%E -3.96%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 10:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.13%E -3.96%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 10:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.13%E -3.96%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.19%E -3.64%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 10:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.37%E -5.18%K -10.37%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-08 21:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 0.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 0.6% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-03-09 00:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50% | 1.2% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56% | 2.3% | 2026-03-09 00:55 |