Language:English
Daniel Altmaier v Miomir Kecmanovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Altmaier (Local)
Prediction 19.35%5.17fair odd
EV +16.11%
Edge +2.68%
Kelly +3.22%
Growth +0.519%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.73%19.52%19.09%24.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.684.606.0026.32%21.39%21.74%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Miomir Kecmanovic (Visit)
Prediction 80.65%1.24fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +6.22%
Growth +0.101%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.70%80.48%80.91%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.181.191.2689.29%84.57%84.03%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Altmaier (Local): 19.35%; Miomir Kecmanovic (Visit): 80.65%. For Daniel Altmaier (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.17. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.11%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +16.11%E +2.68%K +3.22%G +0.519% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -9.67%E -8.64%K -80.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +11.27%E +1.96%K +2.37%G +0.267% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.74I 17.42%NM 16.69%EV +11.08%E +1.93%K +2.34%G +0.259% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.31%EV -7.25%E -6.31%K -48.36%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV +8.37%E +1.49%K +1.82%G +0.152% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +6.43%E +1.17%K +1.43%G +0.092% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +6.43%E +1.17%K +1.43%G +0.092% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -8.87%E -7.85%K -68.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +6.43%E +1.17%K +1.43%G +0.092% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.67%E -8.64%K -80.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV +2.56%E +0.483%K +0.596%G +0.015% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +1.59%E +0.303%K +0.375%G +0.006% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.25%E -6.31%K -48.36%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +1.59%E +0.303%K +0.375%G +0.006% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -1.31%E -0.257%K -0.319%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-04 20:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.24%E -0.649%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.83%E -4.10%K -26.86%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 20:22 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.24%E -0.649%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.83%E -4.10%K -26.86%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 20:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.24%E -0.649%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.83%E -4.10%K -26.86%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 20:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -3.24%E -0.649%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.25%E -6.31%K -48.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 20:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.24%E -0.649%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.24%E -0.649%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.24%E -0.649%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.24%E -0.649%K -0.811%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.06%E -7.07%K -57.57%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -8.08%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.03%E -3.38%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -8.08%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.03%E -3.38%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -8.08%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.03%E -3.38%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -8.08%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.03%E -3.38%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -8.08%E -1.70%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.03%E -3.38%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -9.05%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.62%EV -8.87%E -7.85%K -68.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-04 20:23 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -10.99%E -2.39%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 20:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -10.99%E -2.39%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 20:07 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -10.99%E -2.39%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.03%E -3.38%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -10.99%E -2.39%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -7.25%E -6.31%K -48.36%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -12.92%E -2.87%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.83%E -4.10%K -26.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -12.92%E -2.87%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.83%E -4.10%K -26.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -12.92%E -2.87%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -4.83%E -4.10%K -26.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -12.92%E -2.87%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.64%E -4.82%K -33.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -14.86%E -3.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.41%E -2.00%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -14.86%E -3.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.41%E -2.00%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -14.86%E -3.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.41%E -2.00%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -14.86%E -3.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 20:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -14.86%E -3.38%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.14%EV -6.45%E -5.56%K -40.30%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.79%EV -15.24%E -3.48%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.21%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 20:02 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -17.37%E -4.07%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -0.802%E -0.652%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 20:06 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV -17.37%E -4.07%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -0.802%E -0.652%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 20:07 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -17.76%E -4.18%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -0.802%E -0.652%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 20:03 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -17.76%E -4.18%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.91%EV -17.95%E -4.23%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.09%EV +1.62%E +1.28%K +6.22%G +0.101% | 2.9% | 2026-03-04 20:13 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -18.73%E -4.46%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 20:07 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -18.73%E -4.46%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 20:02 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -18.73%E -4.46%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -3.22%E -2.68%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -18.73%E -4.46%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -4.03%E -3.38%K -21.20%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-04 20:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -18.73%E -4.46%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -4.83%E -4.10%K -26.86%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-04 20:07 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -19.69%E -4.75%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-04 20:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -20.66%E -5.04%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV +0.005%E +0.004%K +0.019%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 20:07 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -22.60%E -5.65%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 20:21 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -22.60%E -5.65%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -22.60%E -5.65%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 20:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -26.47%E -6.96%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-04 20:03 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -26.47%E -6.96%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -1.61%E -1.32%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-04 20:03 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 0.9% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.05% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.95% | 2.9% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38% | 3.3% | 2026-03-04 20:25 |