Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Arthur Rinderknech
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 92.82%1.08fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -86.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.64%92.87%92.72%95.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.021.04100.00%97.74%97.56%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Rinderknech (Visit)
Prediction 7.18%13.93fair odd
EV +65.08%
Edge +2.83%
Kelly +2.96%
Growth +1.93%
assuming max odds 23.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.25%7.13%7.28%10.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0013.5813.0023.0011.11%7.36%7.69%4.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 92.82%; Arthur Rinderknech (Visit): 7.18%. For Arthur Rinderknech (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.93. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 23.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +65.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +65.08%E +2.83%K +2.96%G +1.93% | 2.4% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +50.73%E +2.42%K +2.54%G +1.29% | 3.8% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -7.18%E -7.18%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +50.73%E +2.42%K +2.54%G +1.29% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.31%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 20.92I 4.78%NM 4.69%EV +50.16%E +2.40%K +2.52%G +1.26% | 1.9% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +29.20%E +1.62%K +1.72%G +0.501% | 4.6% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.41%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 17.40I 5.75%NM 5.59%EV +24.89%E +1.43%K +1.52%G +0.378% | 2.8% | 2026-03-10 01:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +14.84%E +0.928%K +0.989%G +0.147% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 01:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +14.84%E +0.928%K +0.989%G +0.147% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 01:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.83%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.17%EV +11.25%E +0.726%K +0.776%G +0.087% | 4.5% | 2026-03-10 01:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.83%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.17%EV +11.25%E +0.726%K +0.776%G +0.087% | 4.5% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.83%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.17%EV +11.25%E +0.726%K +0.776%G +0.087% | 4.5% | 2026-03-10 01:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +7.66%E +0.511%K +0.547%G +0.042% | 3.8% | 2026-03-10 01:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.37%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV +4.08%E +0.281%K +0.302%G +0.012% | 4.0% | 2026-03-10 01:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV +0.486%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-10 01:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +0.486%E +0.035%K +0.037%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-10 01:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.06%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 13.67I 7.32%NM 6.94%EV -1.88%E -0.138%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-10 01:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-10 01:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -6.69%E -0.515%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-10 01:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.55%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 12.80I 7.81%NM 7.45%EV -8.13%E -0.635%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.61%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 12.65I 7.91%NM 7.39%EV -9.20%E -0.728%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -10.28%E -0.822%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-10 01:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -10.28%E -0.822%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-10 01:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.24%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.76%EV -12.07%E -0.986%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-10 01:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-10 01:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-10 01:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-10 01:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.87%E -1.16%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-10 01:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -17.46%E -1.52%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-10 01:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -17.46%E -1.52%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-10 01:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.93%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -17.46%E -1.52%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.93%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -624.94%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -17.46%E -1.52%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-10 01:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -21.05%E -1.91%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-10 01:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -21.05%E -1.91%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.57%EV -5.32%E -5.22%K -266.06%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.43%EV -29.66%E -3.03%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-10 01:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -3.46%E -3.33%K -86.62%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -35.40%E -3.93%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-10 01:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -4.39%E -4.26%K -146.43%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -35.40%E -3.93%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-10 01:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.57% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.43% | 0.5% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.57% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.43% | 0.5% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.57% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.43% | 0.5% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55% | 0.7% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.60% | 28.99I 3.45%NM 3.40% | 1.5% | 2026-03-10 01:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.29% | 20.83I 4.80%NM 4.71% | 1.9% | 2026-03-10 01:25 |