Language:English
Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Martin Damm Jr.
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Prediction 38.41%2.60fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.504%
Kelly -0.826%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.03%38.42%38.42%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.482.5742.55%40.68%40.32%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Martin Damm Jr. (Visit)
Prediction 61.59%1.62fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -3.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%61.58%61.58%62.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.551.541.5968.03%64.71%64.94%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 38.41%; Martin Damm Jr. (Visit): 61.59%. For Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.57, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -1.30%E -0.504%K -0.826%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.91%E -2.51%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-04 17:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -1.30%E -0.504%K -0.826%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.91%E -2.51%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-04 17:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -2.06%E -0.810%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 16:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -2.06%E -0.810%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 17:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -3.22%E -1.28%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -2.68%E -1.70%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-04 17:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.07%E -1.30%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-03 22:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.07%E -1.30%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.91%E -2.51%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 07:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.91%E -2.51%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 15:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.91%E -2.51%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.91%E -2.51%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 15:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 15:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.76%E -3.77%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.61%E -5.07%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 16:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -3.98%E -1.59%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -9.46%E -6.43%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-04 15:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -4.37%E -1.75%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -4.37%E -1.75%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 07:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -4.37%E -1.75%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 07:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -4.53%E -2.92%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 09:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.75%E -1.92%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 12:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -5.52%E -2.24%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -5.76%E -3.77%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-04 17:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.91%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.53%E -2.92%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 17:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.91%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 07:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.91%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 17:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -5.91%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.15%E -3.34%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 15:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.91%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.76%E -3.77%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 07:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.91%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -8.84%E -5.97%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-04 17:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -6.67%E -2.75%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -5.76%E -3.77%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -7.06%E -2.92%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -2.68%E -1.70%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -7.06%E -2.92%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.83%E -3.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.83%E -3.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.53%E -2.92%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 17:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.83%E -3.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.53%E -2.92%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 17:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.83%E -3.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.53%E -2.92%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.83%E -3.26%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.76%E -3.77%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 17:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.59%E -3.61%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.59%E -3.61%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.59%E -3.61%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.59%E -3.61%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 17:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.59%E -3.61%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.76%E -3.77%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-04 17:33 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -8.98%E -3.79%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -5.76%E -3.77%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -8.98%E -3.79%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -5.76%E -3.77%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-04 12:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.75%E -4.15%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.53%E -2.92%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.75%E -4.15%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.53%E -2.92%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 17:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.75%E -4.15%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.53%E -2.92%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 17:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 0.3% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 0.3% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 0.3% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |