Language:English
Cameron Norrie v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cameron Norrie (Local)
Prediction 19.77%5.06fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +0.902%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.84%19.87%19.80%22.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.774.815.3025.00%20.97%20.79%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 80.23%1.25fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -9.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.22%80.13%80.20%82.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.171.2288.50%85.21%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cameron Norrie (Local): 19.77%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 80.23%. For Cameron Norrie (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.06. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV +4.78%E +0.902%K +1.11%G +0.053% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +3.79%E +0.722%K +0.892%G +0.034% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +3.79%E +0.722%K +0.892%G +0.034% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -8.54%E -7.49%K -60.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV +3.79%E +0.722%K +0.892%G +0.034% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -8.54%E -7.49%K -60.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:11 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.54%E -7.49%K -60.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.15%E -0.230%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.54%E -7.49%K -60.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -3.13%E -0.638%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -3.13%E -0.638%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -9.34%E -8.27%K -71.85%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -4.12%E -0.849%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -4.12%E -0.849%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 20.17%EV -4.51%E -0.934%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.83%EV -2.12%E -1.74%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.90%EV -4.51%E -0.934%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.10%EV -3.72%E -3.10%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 18:12 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.90%EV -4.51%E -0.934%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.10%EV -3.72%E -3.10%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-09 18:12 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.81I 20.79%NM 19.83%EV -4.91%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.17%EV -4.53%E -3.80%K -23.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -5.10%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.53%E -3.80%K -23.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 18:07 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.93%E -5.98%K -43.33%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.09%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.93%E -5.98%K -43.33%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.72I 21.19%NM 20.14%EV -6.69%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.86%EV -4.53%E -3.80%K -23.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-09 18:06 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.08%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-09 18:06 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -7.08%E -1.51%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -9.06%E -1.97%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -2.92%E -2.41%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-09 18:11 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -9.06%E -1.97%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -9.06%E -1.97%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.93%E -5.98%K -43.33%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -9.06%E -1.97%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -7.74%E -6.73%K -51.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.03%E -2.45%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.72%E -3.10%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-09 18:06 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.03%E -2.45%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.03%E -2.45%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.03%E -2.45%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.03%E -2.45%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.13%E -5.24%K -36.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -13.01%E -2.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.12%E -1.74%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.01%E -2.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.72%E -3.10%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-09 18:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -13.01%E -2.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -4.53%E -3.80%K -23.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-09 18:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.01%E -2.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 18:07 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.01%E -2.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 18:07 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.01%E -2.96%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-09 18:07 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -16.97%E -4.04%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -2.12%E -1.74%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-09 18:11 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -16.97%E -4.04%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-09 18:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -20.92%E -5.23%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -5.33%E -4.52%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-09 18:11 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.53% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.47% | 1.9% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39% | 2.0% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 2.1% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |
| Novig◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73% | 7.3% | 2026-03-09 18:15 |