Language:English
Luciano Darderi v Roman Andres Burruchaga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Prediction 64.16%1.56fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -3.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.54%64.17%64.19%65.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.461.5371.43%67.96%68.49%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Roman Andres Burruchaga (Visit)
Prediction 35.84%2.79fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.524%
Kelly -0.824%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.15%35.83%35.81%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.632.652.7541.67%38.07%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luciano Darderi (Local): 64.16%; Roman Andres Burruchaga (Visit): 35.84%. For Roman Andres Burruchaga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -1.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.57%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.43%EV -4.31%E -1.61%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.83%E -1.20%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.12%E -2.06%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-19 10:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.17%EV -3.12%E -2.06%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.83%EV -7.18%E -2.77%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.76%E -2.51%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.74%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.76%E -2.51%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.76%E -2.51%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.76%E -2.51%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.61%E -3.38%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.76%E -2.51%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -3.76%E -2.51%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -13.99%E -5.83%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -4.40%E -2.95%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -1.44%E -0.524%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.66%EV -4.40%E -2.95%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.34%EV -6.46%E -2.47%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.40%E -2.95%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-19 10:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.68%E -3.87%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.68%E -3.87%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.68%E -3.87%K -12.09%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.33%E -4.33%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.33%E -4.33%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.33%E -4.33%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.33%E -4.33%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.33%E -4.33%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.68%EV -6.33%E -4.33%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.32%EV -8.25%E -3.22%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.59%EV -6.33%E -4.33%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.61%E -3.38%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.44%E -0.524%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.93%EV -6.97%E -4.80%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.07%EV -7.89%E -3.07%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.61%E -5.28%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.61%E -5.28%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.10%E -2.33%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.18%EV -7.61%E -5.28%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -7.53%E -2.92%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-19 10:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.89%E -6.26%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -5.03%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.94%EV -8.89%E -6.26%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.06%EV -5.74%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -10.18%E -7.27%K -25.44%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47% | 1.6% | 2026-05-19 10:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.18% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.82% | 2.1% | 2026-05-19 10:50 |