Language:English
Justin Engel v Ugo Humbert
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Justin Engel (Local)
Prediction 25.09%3.99fair odd
EV +1.63%
Edge +0.402%
Kelly +0.534%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 4.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.44%25.04%25.02%26.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.754.0528.57%26.83%26.70%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ugo Humbert (Visit)
Prediction 74.91%1.34fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -6.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.20%74.96%74.98%76.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.261.3181.97%79.14%79.37%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Justin Engel (Local): 25.09%; Ugo Humbert (Visit): 74.91%. For Justin Engel (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.63%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.58%EV +1.63%E +0.402%K +0.534%G +0.009% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.42%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV +1.63%E +0.402%K +0.534%G +0.009% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -7.12%E -5.74%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV +1.38%E +0.341%K +0.454%G +0.006% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -5.62%E -4.46%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.77%EV +1.38%E +0.341%K +0.454%G +0.006% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.23%EV -5.62%E -4.46%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.375%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.375%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%EV -0.880%E -0.223%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38%EV -3.37%E -2.61%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -2.13%E -0.547%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -7.12%E -5.74%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -2.13%E -0.547%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -8.61%E -7.06%K -39.16%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.39%E -0.880%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -3.37%E -2.61%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-19 13:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.71%EV -3.64%E -0.948%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.29%EV -5.62%E -4.46%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-19 13:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.64%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.64%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.64%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.64%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.62%E -4.46%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -4.64%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -7.12%E -5.74%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -4.64%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.61%E -7.06%K -39.16%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -4.64%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.61%E -7.06%K -39.16%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.37%E -2.61%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-19 13:37 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.62%E -4.46%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.12%E -5.74%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.12%E -5.74%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -5.90%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.87%E -6.39%K -34.20%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-19 13:33 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -4.12%E -3.22%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.15%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.12%E -3.22%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.15%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.15%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.62%E -4.46%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-19 13:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.15%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.62%E -4.46%K -21.61%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-19 13:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.15%E -1.93%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -8.41%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -9.66%E -2.68%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -1.87%E -1.43%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -9.66%E -2.68%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.37%E -2.61%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-19 13:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -9.66%E -2.68%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.12%E -3.22%K -14.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.66%E -2.68%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.66%E -2.68%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.66%E -2.68%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.66%E -2.68%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.87%E -3.83%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.66%E -2.68%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-19 13:28 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.42%EV -10.16%E -2.84%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.58%EV -8.61%E -7.06%K -39.16%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-19 13:37 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -2.62%E -2.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -2.62%E -2.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -2.62%E -2.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -2.62%E -2.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -2.62%E -2.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -2.62%E -2.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -10.92%E -3.08%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -2.62%E -2.02%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -12.17%E -3.48%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -12.17%E -3.48%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.37%E -5.09%K -25.47%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-19 13:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -12.17%E -3.48%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -7.12%E -5.74%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |
| Novig◎ | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.78% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.22% | 3.3% | 2026-05-19 13:40 |