Language:English
Ignacio Buse v Ugo Humbert
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ignacio Buse (Local)
Prediction 72.46%1.38fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.28%72.22%72.56%74.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.321.311.3678.74%75.94%76.34%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ugo Humbert (Visit)
Prediction 27.54%3.63fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +0.876%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.039%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.45%27.78%27.44%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.313.303.7533.90%30.20%30.30%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Buse (Local): 72.46%; Ugo Humbert (Visit): 27.54%. For Ugo Humbert (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -7.25%E -5.67%K -25.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +3.29%E +0.876%K +1.19%G +0.039% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 09:58 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71%EV +0.531%E +0.146%K +0.201%G +0.001% | 2.6% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.08%E -3.88%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.846%E -0.235%K -0.325%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -5.08%E -3.88%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -2.22%E -0.626%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -7.25%E -5.67%K -25.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -2.22%E -0.626%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 09:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -2.91%E -2.17%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.60%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.08%E -3.88%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.60%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-21 09:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.60%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 09:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.60%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.60%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 09:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.60%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.08%E -3.88%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -4.98%E -1.44%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.98%E -1.44%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.98%E -1.44%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -4.98%E -1.44%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -4.98%E -1.44%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-21 10:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -7.25%E -5.67%K -25.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -4.98%E -1.44%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -4.36%E -3.30%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -5.80%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 09:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.36%E -3.30%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.35%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.35%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 10:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.35%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 10:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.35%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.35%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.35%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.35%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-21 10:08 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.98%E -6.28%K -29.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.35%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -2.91%E -2.17%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -7.18%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -2.91%E -2.17%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -7.18%E -2.13%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.49%EV -2.91%E -2.17%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.51%EV -7.46%E -2.22%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-21 10:07 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.08%E -3.88%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.73%E -2.31%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.11%E -2.76%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-21 09:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.08%E -3.88%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -9.11%E -2.76%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.11%E -2.76%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.11%E -2.76%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -7.25%E -5.67%K -25.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -9.11%E -2.76%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-21 09:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.49%E -3.23%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.49%E -3.23%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.49%E -3.23%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.49%E -3.23%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.49%E -3.23%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -7.25%E -5.67%K -25.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -10.49%E -3.23%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -11.86%E -3.71%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -4.36%E -3.30%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.86%E -3.71%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.81%E -4.47%K -19.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.86%E -3.71%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-21 09:58 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -13.24%E -4.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -13.24%E -4.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -13.24%E -4.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -13.24%E -4.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -13.24%E -4.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -13.24%E -4.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -13.24%E -4.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -13.24%E -4.20%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.46%E -1.07%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -14.62%E -4.72%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -2.18%E -1.62%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -14.62%E -4.72%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -2.91%E -2.17%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -15.99%E -5.24%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -2.91%E -2.17%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -15.99%E -5.24%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -2.91%E -2.17%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -15.99%E -5.24%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.66%EV -4.36%E -3.30%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 30.34%EV -16.55%E -5.46%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.63%E -2.73%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -17.37%E -5.79%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -4.36%E -3.30%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -17.37%E -5.79%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.58%EV -6.53%E -5.06%K -22.52%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -18.75%E -6.36%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-05-21 10:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.09% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.91% | 2.1% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56% | 3.2% | 2026-05-21 10:10 |