Language:English
Diego Dedura-Palomero v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Diego Dedura-Palomero (Local)
Prediction 30.05%3.33fair odd
EV +8.16%
Edge +2.27%
Kelly +3.14%
Growth +0.256%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%30.08%29.52%32.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.243.303.6035.71%30.86%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 69.95%1.43fair odd
EV -0.665%
Edge -0.468%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.06%69.92%70.48%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.341.331.4278.13%74.89%75.19%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diego Dedura-Palomero (Local): 30.05%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 69.95%. For Diego Dedura-Palomero (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV +8.16%E +2.27%K +3.14%G +0.256% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +8.16%E +2.27%K +3.14%G +0.256% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -9.06%E -6.97%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +8.16%E +2.27%K +3.14%G +0.256% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -9.76%E -7.56%K -33.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 12:33 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV +3.66%E +1.06%K +1.49%G +0.055% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -10.46%E -8.17%K -37.35%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.73%EV +3.36%E +0.976%K +1.38%G +0.046% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.27%EV -7.66%E -5.80%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.73%EV +3.36%E +0.976%K +1.38%G +0.046% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.27%EV -7.66%E -5.80%K -23.94%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-17 12:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV +2.15%E +0.634%K +0.898%G +0.019% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -6.26%E -4.67%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-17 12:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +2.15%E +0.634%K +0.898%G +0.019% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +2.15%E +0.634%K +0.898%G +0.019% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -9.06%E -6.97%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +2.15%E +0.634%K +0.898%G +0.019% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -9.06%E -6.97%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +0.652%E +0.195%K +0.278%G +0.002% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +0.652%E +0.195%K +0.278%G +0.002% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +0.652%E +0.195%K +0.278%G +0.002% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +0.652%E +0.195%K +0.278%G +0.002% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 12:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.26%E -4.67%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-17 12:33 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -9.06%E -6.97%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -0.850%E -0.258%K -0.370%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -9.06%E -6.97%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.35%E -0.724%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.26%E -4.67%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.35%E -0.724%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.35%E -0.724%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 12:36 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.35%E -0.724%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -2.35%E -0.724%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -9.76%E -7.56%K -33.65%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -2.35%E -0.724%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -9.76%E -7.56%K -33.65%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.86%E -3.57%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-17 12:41 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.56%E -4.12%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-17 12:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.06%E -6.97%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.06%E -6.97%K -30.20%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.43%EV -6.56%E -2.11%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.57%EV -4.86%E -3.57%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -8.36%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -0.665%E -0.468%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-17 12:38 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.86%E -3.29%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.96%E -5.23%K -21.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -11.37%E -3.85%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.06%E -1.47%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 12:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -12.87%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -0.665%E -0.468%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.87%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.06%E -1.47%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -12.87%E -4.44%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -3.46%E -2.51%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -14.37%E -5.04%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -2.06%E -1.47%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 12:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -14.37%E -5.04%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -2.06%E -1.47%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 12:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -15.87%E -5.67%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -4.86%E -3.57%K -13.51%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 0.8% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 0.8% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| Novig◎ | 3.47I 28.82%NM 28.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.84% | 2.3% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |