Language:English
Aleksandar Kovacevic v Ignacio Buse
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local)
Prediction 27.53%3.63fair odd
EV +4.60%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.076%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%27.47%27.44%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.453.8033.33%29.31%28.99%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ignacio Buse (Visit)
Prediction 72.47%1.38fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -3.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.28%72.53%72.56%75.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.301.3680.00%76.40%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local): 27.53%; Ignacio Buse (Visit): 72.47%. For Aleksandar Kovacevic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV +4.60%E +1.21%K +1.64%G +0.076% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -8.68%E -6.89%K -33.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV +2.95%E +0.789%K +1.08%G +0.032% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -7.23%E -5.65%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV +0.474%E +0.130%K +0.179%G +0.001% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -4.34%E -3.28%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -0.352%E -0.097%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -6.51%E -5.05%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-22 10:41 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -0.902%E -0.251%K -0.347%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -9.41%E -7.53%K -37.64%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-22 10:41 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 28.16%EV -4.48%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.84%EV -1.44%E -1.06%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 12:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.03%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.58%EV -5.31%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -5.86%E -1.71%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -4.34%E -3.28%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -2.89%E -2.15%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-22 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-22 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-22 10:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.51%E -5.05%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.51%E -5.05%K -22.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -7.23%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -2.89%E -2.15%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-22 12:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -7.23%E -2.15%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -2.89%E -2.15%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-22 12:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.78%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 12:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 12:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 12:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-22 12:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-22 10:41 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 12:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -4.34%E -3.28%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -4.34%E -3.28%K -13.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 13:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.79%E -4.45%K -19.28%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 12:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -14.67%E -4.73%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -2.89%E -2.15%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -17.42%E -5.81%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -3.61%E -2.72%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-05-22 13:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15% | 2.0% | 2026-05-22 13:20 |
| Novig◎ | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.29% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.71% | 2.6% | 2026-05-22 13:21 |