L’École des cotes

Raphael Collignon v Mattia Bellucci

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-18 15:20 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

65 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Raphael Collignon (Local)

Prévision 52.92%1.89cote équitable
EV -0.502%
Avantage -0.267%
Kelly -0.570%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.88

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.07%53.04%52.72%54.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.721.791.801.8858.14%55.90%55.56%53.19%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Mattia Bellucci (Visiteur)

Prévision 47.08%2.12cote équitable
EV -1.14%
Avantage -0.544%
Kelly -1.04%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
45.17%46.96%47.28%48.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.902.012.002.1052.63%49.84%50.00%47.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -0.502%E -0.267%K -0.570%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.5%2026-06-18 15:10
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-18 15:10
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 14:59
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 15:09
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 15:10
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 15:10
BetAnything1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 15:10
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-18 15:10
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-18 15:11
Bet Right1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-18 15:10
FanDuel1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Marathon Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.37%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.63%EV -6.32%E -3.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:10
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-18 15:09
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Dabble (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
BetRivers1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Casumo1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
TABtouch1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Unibet (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Unibet (NL)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:11
Unibet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
betPARX1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Svenska Spel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Bally Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:08
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:11
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.49%EV -6.32%E -3.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 15:11
PlayUp1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 15:10
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 15:11
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -10.56%E -5.56%K -11.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-18 15:10
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Unibet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-18 15:09
SportsBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-18 15:11
NetBet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-18 14:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-18 15:10
Neds1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-18 15:10
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-18 15:10
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-18 15:10
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-18 15:09
Unibet (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -2.55%E -1.23%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 15:10
ReBet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -2.55%E -1.23%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 15:10
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-18 15:10
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-18 15:10
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-18 15:09
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-18 15:09
PMU (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.57%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.43%EV -8.67%E -4.47%K -9.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-18 15:10
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 15:10
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 15:10
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 15:10
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 15:10
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 15:10
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -8.97%E -5.21%K -12.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.61%EV -7.26%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-18 15:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-06-18 15:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-06-18 15:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-06-18 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-06-18 15:11
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%1.9%2026-06-18 15:11
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%3.6%2026-06-18 15:09