La escuela de los momios

Raphael Collignon v Mattia Bellucci

Inicio: 2026-06-18 15:20 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Raphael Collignon (Local)

Predicción 52.92%1.89momio equitativo
EV -0.502%
Ventaja -0.267%
Kelly -0.570%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.07%53.04%52.72%54.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.721.791.801.8858.14%55.90%55.56%53.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Mattia Bellucci (Visitante)

Predicción 47.08%2.12momio equitativo
EV -1.14%
Ventaja -0.544%
Kelly -1.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.17%46.96%47.28%48.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.902.012.002.1052.63%49.84%50.00%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 51.92%EV -0.502%E -0.267%K -0.570%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.08%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.5%2026-06-18 15:10
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-18 15:10
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 14:59
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 15:09
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 15:10
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 15:10
BetAnything1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-18 15:10
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-18 15:10
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-18 15:11
Bet Right1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-18 15:10
FanDuel1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Marathon Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.37%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.63%EV -6.32%E -3.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-18 15:10
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-18 15:09
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Dabble (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
BetRivers1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Casumo1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
TABtouch1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Unibet (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Unibet (NL)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:11
Unibet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
betPARX1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Svenska Spel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Bally Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:08
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:11
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.49%EV -6.32%E -3.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 15:11
PlayUp1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 15:10
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-18 15:11
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -10.56%E -5.56%K -11.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-18 15:10
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Unibet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-18 15:09
SportsBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-18 15:11
NetBet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-18 14:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-18 15:10
Neds1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-18 15:10
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-18 15:10
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-18 15:10
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-18 15:09
Unibet (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -2.55%E -1.23%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 15:10
ReBet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -2.55%E -1.23%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-18 15:10
Winamax (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -6.85%E -3.89%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-18 15:10
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-18 15:10
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-18 15:10
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-18 15:09
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-18 15:09
PMU (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.57%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.43%EV -8.67%E -4.47%K -9.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-18 15:10
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.50%E -1.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 15:10
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 15:10
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 15:10
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 15:10
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-18 15:10
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-18 15:10
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -8.97%E -5.21%K -12.46%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.61%EV -7.26%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-18 15:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-06-18 15:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-06-18 15:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-06-18 15:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12%0.8%2026-06-18 15:11
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 51.40%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.60%1.9%2026-06-18 15:11
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%3.6%2026-06-18 15:09