Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 41.64%2.40fair odd
EV +6.17%
Edge +2.42%
Kelly +3.98%
Growth +0.246%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.19%41.38%41.61%42.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.302.5545.45%42.70%43.48%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit)
Prediction 58.36%1.71fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.47%58.62%58.39%62.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.591.611.6866.23%62.86%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 41.64%; Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit): 58.36%. For Frances Tiafoe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (67 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -10.70%E -7.00%K -20.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -11.29%E -7.43%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -11.29%E -7.43%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -11.29%E -7.43%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +6.17%E +2.42%K +3.98%G +0.246% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -11.87%E -7.86%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV +2.01%E +0.820%K +1.39%G +0.028% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -10.70%E -7.00%K -20.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%EV -1.74%E -0.737%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%EV -2.53%E -1.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.15%E -0.917%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.70%E -2.24%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -2.15%E -0.917%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -7.20%E -4.53%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -2.15%E -0.917%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.95%E -5.74%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -2.57%E -1.10%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -6.03%E -3.75%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -2.99%E -1.28%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 17:58 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.82%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.70%E -2.24%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-19 17:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.70%E -2.24%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.28%E -2.61%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.03%E -3.75%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.03%E -3.75%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.03%E -3.75%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.03%E -3.75%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.24%E -1.84%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.54%E -6.15%K -17.34%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.65%E -2.03%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.87%E -2.99%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -5.49%E -2.42%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -1.95%E -1.16%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -5.49%E -2.42%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -1.95%E -1.16%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.19%EV -5.49%E -2.42%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -7.20%E -4.53%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.70%E -2.24%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.28%E -2.61%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.28%E -2.61%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.87%E -2.99%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.03%E -3.75%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.37%E -5.33%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.32%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.37%E -5.33%K -14.68%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -7.57%E -3.41%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -4.87%E -2.99%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.40%E -3.82%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.40%E -3.82%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.45%E -3.36%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.40%E -3.82%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.40%E -3.82%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.40%E -3.82%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 17:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.40%E -3.82%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.40%E -3.82%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.40%E -3.82%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.62%E -4.14%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 0.5% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 0.5% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88% | 0.5% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22% | 0.5% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77% | 1.9% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32% | 3.2% | 2026-06-19 18:00 |