Language:English
Thiago Agustin Tirante v Pablo Carreno Busta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)
Prediction 67.43%1.48fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%67.49%67.43%69.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.391.4573.53%71.59%71.94%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit)
Prediction 32.57%3.07fair odd
EV +2.59%
Edge +0.823%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.38%32.51%32.57%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.953.003.1536.36%33.90%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local): 67.43%; Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit): 32.57%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.07. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +2.59%E +0.823%K +1.21%G +0.031% | 4.2% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.62%EV -7.62%E -5.56%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.38%EV +2.27%E +0.722%K +1.06%G +0.024% | 4.8% | 2026-05-29 09:06 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +0.965%E +0.311%K +0.460%G +0.004% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.965%E +0.311%K +0.460%G +0.004% | 5.8% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%EV -6.27%E -4.51%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%EV +0.314%E +0.102%K +0.151%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%EV -6.27%E -4.51%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%EV +0.314%E +0.102%K +0.151%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-29 09:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:03 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-29 09:07 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -0.989%E -0.325%K -0.485%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-29 08:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%EV -2.23%E -1.53%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-29 09:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.62%E -5.56%K -20.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.92%E -3.49%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -2.94%E -0.988%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-29 08:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.12%EV -6.27%E -4.51%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.88%EV -3.27%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-29 09:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -6.27%E -4.51%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -3.92%E -1.33%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -4.92%E -3.49%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -4.90%E -1.68%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67%EV -2.23%E -1.53%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -2.90%E -2.01%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-29 09:03 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.57%E -2.50%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.85%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -2.23%E -1.53%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -7.18%E -2.52%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.18%E -2.52%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.18%E -2.52%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 09:08 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.18%E -2.52%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.57%E -2.50%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.90%E -2.01%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-29 08:58 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.90%E -2.01%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-29 09:07 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.90%E -2.01%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-29 09:07 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.57%E -2.50%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 09:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-29 09:06 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37% | 1.2% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.86% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 32.14% | 2.3% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42% | 2.7% | 2026-05-29 09:10 |