L’École des cotes

Thiago Agustin Tirante v Pablo Carreno Busta

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-29 09:14 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)

Prévision 67.43%1.48cote équitable
EV -2.23%
Avantage -1.53%
Kelly -4.95%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
65.63%67.49%67.43%69.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.361.401.391.4573.53%71.59%71.94%68.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Pablo Carreno Busta (Visiteur)

Prévision 32.57%3.07cote équitable
EV +2.59%
Avantage +0.823%
Kelly +1.21%
Croissance +0.031%

avec la cote maximale 3.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.38%32.51%32.57%34.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.752.953.003.1536.36%33.90%33.33%31.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
FanDuel1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +2.59%E +0.823%K +1.21%G +0.031%4.2%2026-05-29 09:09
SportsBet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.62%EV -7.62%E -5.56%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.38%EV +2.27%E +0.722%K +1.06%G +0.024%4.8%2026-05-29 09:06
Hard Rock Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +0.965%E +0.311%K +0.460%G +0.004%4.7%2026-05-29 09:09
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.965%E +0.311%K +0.460%G +0.004%5.8%2026-05-29 09:09
LowVig.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%EV -6.27%E -4.51%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%EV +0.314%E +0.102%K +0.151%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-29 09:10
BetOnline.ag1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%EV -6.27%E -4.51%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%EV +0.314%E +0.102%K +0.151%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-29 09:10
Coolbet1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-29 09:09
Codere (IT)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-29 09:00
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:10
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:03
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:10
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
LiveScore Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
Unibet (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
Unibet (NL)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
Bally Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:09
ATG (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:10
Svenska Spel1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:10
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.663%E -0.217%K -0.324%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-29 09:07
Marathon Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -0.989%E -0.325%K -0.485%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-29 08:59
Pinnacle1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%EV -2.23%E -1.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-29 09:04
Bovada1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-29 09:09
BetAnything1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-29 09:09
TAB1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-29 09:09
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.62%E -5.56%K -20.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-29 09:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-29 09:09
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-29 09:09
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-29 09:09
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.29%E -0.764%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-29 09:10
GTbets1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.92%E -3.49%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -2.94%E -0.988%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-29 08:59
NetBet (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 68.12%EV -6.27%E -4.51%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.88%EV -3.27%E -1.10%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-29 09:00
Unibet (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -6.27%E -4.51%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -3.92%E -1.33%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-29 09:09
Bet Right1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -4.92%E -3.49%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -4.90%E -1.68%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-29 09:10
Winamax (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67%EV -2.23%E -1.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-29 09:09
Unibet (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -2.90%E -2.01%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-29 09:10
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-29 09:09
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-29 09:10
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-29 09:03
Caesars1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.95%E -5.03%K -18.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.55%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-29 09:09
1xBet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.57%E -2.50%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.85%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-29 09:09
MyBookie.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -2.23%E -1.53%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -7.18%E -2.52%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-29 09:09
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.18%E -2.52%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-29 09:10
DraftKings1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.18%E -2.52%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-29 09:08
Winamax (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.18%E -2.52%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-29 09:09
theScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.57%E -2.50%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-29 09:09
Fanatics1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 09:10
Betsson1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 09:10
NordicBet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.25%E -2.99%K -10.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-29 09:09
Fliff1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -8.29%E -6.10%K -23.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.81%E -3.14%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-29 09:10
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.90%E -2.01%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-29 08:58
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.90%E -2.01%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-29 09:07
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.90%E -2.01%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-29 09:07
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -3.57%E -2.50%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-29 09:09
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-29 09:09
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-29 09:10
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-29 09:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-29 09:10
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.60%E -4.00%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.43%E -3.79%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-29 09:06
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-05-29 09:10
Matchbook1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-05-29 09:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-05-29 09:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-05-29 09:10
Novig1.44I 69.44%NM 67.86%3.04I 32.89%NM 32.14%2.3%2026-05-29 09:10
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 68.58%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.42%2.7%2026-05-29 09:10