Language:English
Matteo Berrettini v Matteo Arnaldi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Berrettini (Local)
Prediction 62.78%1.59fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.917%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.19%62.81%62.76%63.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.521.521.5768.03%65.89%65.79%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Arnaldi (Visit)
Prediction 37.22%2.69fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.513%
Kelly -0.824%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.12%37.19%37.24%38.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.562.6541.67%39.05%38.99%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 62.78%; Matteo Arnaldi (Visit): 37.22%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -1.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.80%EV -1.44%E -0.917%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20%EV -5.45%E -2.15%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.07%E -1.33%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -2.07%E -1.33%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -8.43%E -3.43%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -2.70%E -1.74%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -1.36%E -0.513%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -1.36%E -0.513%K -0.824%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%EV -3.59%E -1.39%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -5.45%E -2.15%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-03 18:18 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.95%E -2.58%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.80%E -3.59%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -3.97%E -1.54%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -4.71%E -1.84%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.58%E -3.01%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.21%E -3.45%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-03 18:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.21%E -3.45%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.21%E -3.45%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-03 18:17 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.48%E -0.945%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-03 18:13 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.14%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.86%EV -4.34%E -1.69%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-03 18:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-03 18:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.83%E -3.89%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.67%E -4.44%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-03 18:16 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -6.46%E -4.34%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.46%E -4.34%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.46%E -4.34%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -5.08%E -1.99%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.46%E -4.34%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.09%E -4.79%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.94%E -2.78%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.72%E -5.25%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -3.22%E -1.24%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.88% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.12% | 1.3% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.76% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 36.24% | 1.8% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |