Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 37.71%2.65fair odd
EV +5.57%
Edge +1.99%
Kelly +3.10%
Growth +0.173%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.83%37.86%37.11%41.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.472.472.8046.51%40.53%40.49%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)
Prediction 62.29%1.61fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.945%
Kelly +2.45%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.07%62.14%62.89%65.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.531.521.6371.43%65.36%65.57%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 37.71%; Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit): 62.29%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV +5.57%E +1.99%K +3.10%G +0.173% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +3.69%E +1.34%K +2.11%G +0.078% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -8.43%E -5.73%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV +1.80%E +0.668%K +1.06%G +0.019% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -8.43%E -5.73%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 17:58 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +1.80%E +0.668%K +1.06%G +0.019% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -9.67%E -6.67%K -21.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-28 17:57 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +1.80%E +0.668%K +1.06%G +0.019% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -9.67%E -6.67%K -21.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.34%EV +1.05%E +0.392%K +0.625%G +0.007% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.66%EV -4.69%E -3.06%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-28 17:38 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.28%EV +0.673%E +0.252%K +0.403%G +0.003% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.72%EV -5.31%E -3.49%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-28 17:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.28%EV +0.673%E +0.252%K +0.403%G +0.003% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.72%EV -5.31%E -3.49%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-28 17:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.082%E -0.031%K -0.049%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.93%E -3.93%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-28 17:38 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -0.082%E -0.031%K -0.049%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -9.05%E -6.20%K -19.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 17:58 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.92%EV -0.459%E -0.174%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.08%EV -7.80%E -5.27%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-28 17:51 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV -1.21%E -0.463%K -0.749%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -7.80%E -5.27%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-28 17:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.97%E -0.756%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.31%E -3.49%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-28 17:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -1.97%E -0.756%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.93%E -3.93%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 17:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.97%E -0.756%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 17:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.97%E -0.756%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.97%E -0.756%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.97%E -0.756%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 17:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -1.97%E -0.756%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.43%E -5.73%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.85%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.69%E -3.06%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-28 17:38 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.85%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.31%E -3.49%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-28 17:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.85%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.93%E -3.93%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-28 17:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.85%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-28 17:53 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.85%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-28 17:53 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.85%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-28 17:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.98%E -1.98%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.69%E -3.06%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-28 17:46 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-28 17:48 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.56%E -4.37%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.43%E -5.73%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -5.74%E -2.29%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.67%E -6.67%K -21.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-28 17:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.06%EV -6.11%E -2.46%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.94%EV -4.69%E -3.06%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.82%E -1.81%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.82%E -1.81%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -7.62%E -3.11%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.64%EV -12.79%E -9.13%K -31.97%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -0.328%E -0.205%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -0.951%E -0.598%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.82%E -1.81%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.44%E -2.22%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.44%E -2.22%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -4.07%E -2.64%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -9.51%E -3.96%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.80%E -5.27%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.26%E -4.31%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.69%E -3.06%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.26%E -4.31%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.69%E -3.06%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -10.26%E -4.31%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -5.93%E -3.93%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -10.64%E -4.49%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -4.69%E -3.06%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -10.64%E -4.49%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -4.69%E -3.06%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -11.39%E -4.85%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -4.07%E -2.64%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -13.28%E -5.77%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -0.328%E -0.205%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -13.28%E -5.77%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -2.20%E -1.40%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -13.28%E -5.77%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -3.44%E -2.22%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV +1.54%E +0.945%K +2.45%G +0.038% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV +1.54%E +0.945%K +2.45%G +0.038% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV +1.54%E +0.945%K +2.45%G +0.038% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV +1.54%E +0.945%K +2.45%G +0.038% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -14.03%E -6.15%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV +1.54%E +0.945%K +2.45%G +0.038% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -15.16%E -6.74%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV +0.918%E +0.567%K +1.48%G +0.014% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 17:58 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -15.16%E -6.74%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -2.20%E -1.40%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -15.16%E -6.74%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -5.31%E -3.49%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -15.92%E -7.14%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV +0.295%E +0.183%K +0.483%G +0.001% | 7.0% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -15.92%E -7.14%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV +0.295%E +0.183%K +0.483%G +0.001% | 7.0% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -17.05%E -7.75%K -14.21%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -2.20%E -1.40%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -18.93%E -8.81%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -3.44%E -2.22%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-28 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06% | 0.1% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.63% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.37% | 0.2% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 1.7% | 2026-05-28 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20% | 3.0% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04% | 4.3% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 18:00 |