Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v Flavio Cobolli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 32.91%3.04fair odd
EV +5.32%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +2.42%
Growth +0.129%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.43%32.79%32.95%35.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.932.923.2037.74%34.11%34.31%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Flavio Cobolli (Visit)
Prediction 67.09%1.49fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.940%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.48%67.21%67.05%69.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.421.411.4773.53%70.62%70.92%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 32.91%; Flavio Cobolli (Visit): 67.09%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%EV +5.32%E +1.66%K +2.42%G +0.129% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-06-05 07:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV +0.385%E +0.126%K +0.188%G +0.001% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-05 16:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.29%EV -0.603%E -0.200%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.71%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-06-05 16:38 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.67%EV -0.603%E -0.200%K -0.298%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.33%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-05 16:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-04 00:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-05 16:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-05 16:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:08 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-05 11:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-05 16:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.26%E -0.420%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -1.92%E -0.644%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.27%EV -2.58%E -0.871%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.73%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-05 16:28 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11%EV -2.58%E -0.871%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-05 16:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.95%EV -2.91%E -0.985%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.05%EV -2.72%E -1.88%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-05 16:48 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.91%E -0.985%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-05 16:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.91%E -0.985%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-05 16:28 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -2.91%E -0.985%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.42%E -5.38%K -19.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-05 16:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -2.91%E -0.985%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -7.42%E -5.38%K -19.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-05 16:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -3.24%E -1.10%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -4.07%E -2.84%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-05 16:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.41%EV -3.56%E -1.22%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.59%EV -1.38%E -0.940%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-06-05 16:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67%EV -2.72%E -1.88%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-05 16:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-05 16:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.07%E -2.84%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-05 16:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-05 16:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-05 16:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.74%E -3.34%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-05 13:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-05 13:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-05 13:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-05 13:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-05 13:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.55%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-05 16:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -4.88%E -1.69%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-05 16:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -4.88%E -1.69%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-05 16:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -5.21%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.21%E -1.81%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-05 15:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -5.54%E -1.93%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.15%EV -5.54%E -1.93%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -8.76%E -6.44%K -24.34%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.20%E -2.17%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.39%E -2.36%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-05 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.20%E -2.17%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.07%E -2.84%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-05 16:28 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -6.20%E -2.17%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.41%E -3.84%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-05 16:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -6.20%E -2.17%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -7.42%E -5.38%K -19.53%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-05 16:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -7.19%E -2.55%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -2.72%E -1.88%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-05 16:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -9.49%E -3.45%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -2.72%E -1.88%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-05 16:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.49%E -3.45%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.08%E -4.34%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-05 15:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -12.78%E -4.82%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -2.05%E -1.41%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-05 16:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-06-05 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-06-05 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-06-05 16:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 0.9% | 2026-06-05 16:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.33% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.67% | 1.4% | 2026-06-05 16:50 |
| Novig◎ | 2.91I 34.36%NM 33.71% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.29% | 1.9% | 2026-06-05 16:49 |