Language:English
Mariano Navone v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mariano Navone (Local)
Prediction 46.93%2.13fair odd
EV -0.510%
Edge -0.240%
Kelly -0.455%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.50%46.85%46.97%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.022.002.1251.55%49.48%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 53.07%1.88fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.15%53.03%55.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.771.8458.82%56.38%56.50%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariano Navone (Local): 46.93%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 53.07%. For Mariano Navone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.12, with an expected value of -0.510%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -0.510%E -0.240%K -0.455%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -9.78%E -5.75%K -13.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -1.45%E -0.690%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.53%E -3.11%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -2.39%E -1.15%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -5.00%E -2.80%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-27 11:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -3.33%E -1.61%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -5.53%E -3.11%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.33%E -1.61%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.60%E -3.75%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-27 11:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.53%E -3.11%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-27 11:21 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.79%E -1.85%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.26%E -2.09%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.41%E -1.87%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-27 11:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -4.26%E -2.09%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.40%EV -9.25%E -5.41%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-27 11:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.41%E -1.87%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.41%E -1.87%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.00%E -2.80%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-27 11:27 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.00%E -2.80%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-27 11:27 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.20%E -2.58%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.00%E -2.80%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-27 11:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -2.35%E -1.28%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.88%E -1.57%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:23 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-27 11:28 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.66%E -4.40%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-27 11:26 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.73%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.73%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.73%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-27 11:27 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.73%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.73%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.14%E -3.07%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.19%E -4.73%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.07%E -3.43%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.94%EV -6.60%E -3.75%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-27 11:28 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -7.08%E -3.58%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.94%EV -6.60%E -3.75%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-27 11:27 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -7.55%E -3.83%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -6.60%E -3.75%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.47%E -2.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.49%E -4.35%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.13%E -4.07%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -8.96%E -4.62%K -9.53%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -6.60%E -3.75%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-27 11:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.13% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.87% | 0.1% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.13% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.87% | 0.1% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50% | 0.3% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63% | 0.5% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42% | 2.0% | 2026-05-27 11:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83% | 5.4% | 2026-05-27 11:25 |