Language:English
Karen Khachanov v Arthur Gea
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Karen Khachanov (Local)
Prediction 80.30%1.25fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -5.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.63%80.16%80.36%82.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2389.29%85.26%85.47%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Gea (Visit)
Prediction 19.70%5.08fair odd
EV +8.36%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +0.155%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.04%19.84%19.64%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.814.805.5025.00%20.77%20.83%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karen Khachanov (Local): 80.30%; Arthur Gea (Visit): 19.70%. For Arthur Gea (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.08. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.36%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -9.26%E -8.20%K -71.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV +8.36%E +1.52%K +1.86%G +0.155% | 6.7% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV +4.42%E +0.834%K +1.03%G +0.045% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.55%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.45%EV +3.63%E +0.691%K +0.853%G +0.031% | 3.0% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV +2.45%E +0.471%K +0.584%G +0.014% | 4.0% | 2026-05-24 08:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV +2.45%E +0.471%K +0.584%G +0.014% | 4.0% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV +0.481%E +0.094%K +0.117%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-05-24 08:57 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV +0.481%E +0.094%K +0.117%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-05-24 08:57 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.481%E +0.094%K +0.117%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.481%E +0.094%K +0.117%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.481%E +0.094%K +0.117%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.481%E +0.094%K +0.117%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.481%E +0.094%K +0.117%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.481%E +0.094%K +0.117%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.19%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.81%EV -0.504%E -0.100%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 08:57 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-24 08:53 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-24 08:58 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 08:58 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.85%E -5.91%K -42.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.66%E -6.66%K -51.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.46%E -7.42%K -60.43%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.49%E -0.298%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.68%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.32%EV -2.08%E -0.419%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-24 09:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.68%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.32%EV -2.08%E -0.419%K -0.524%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-24 09:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.30%EV -3.64%E -3.04%K -18.21%G +0.000% | 4.89I 20.45%NM 19.70%EV -3.66%E -0.748%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-24 08:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV -4.44%E -0.916%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.20%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 19.80%EV -5.04%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.43%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.85%E -5.91%K -42.84%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.43%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.85%E -5.91%K -42.84%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.43%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.85%E -5.91%K -42.84%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.43%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.85%E -5.91%K -42.84%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.43%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.41%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 08:58 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.41%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.66%E -6.66%K -51.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -6.41%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.66%E -6.66%K -51.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -6.41%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.66%E -6.66%K -51.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -6.41%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.66%E -6.66%K -51.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -6.41%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.20%EV -6.85%E -5.91%K -42.84%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -7.40%E -1.57%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -7.66%E -6.66%K -51.05%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -7.40%E -1.57%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -8.38%E -1.80%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -7.66%E -6.66%K -51.05%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -8.38%E -1.80%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -3.64%E -3.04%K -18.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.37%E -2.04%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:13 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -3.64%E -3.04%K -18.21%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.37%E -2.04%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -9.37%E -2.04%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -9.37%E -2.04%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-24 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -9.37%E -2.04%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -9.37%E -2.04%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.42%EV -10.07%E -8.99%K -83.89%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -9.37%E -2.04%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.64%E -3.04%K -18.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.34%E -2.52%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.34%E -2.52%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.34%E -2.52%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.25%E -4.45%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.31%E -3.03%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.57%EV -9.26%E -8.20%K -71.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -13.31%E -3.03%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -4.45%E -3.74%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -14.30%E -3.29%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:13 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -1.23%E -1.00%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV -14.49%E -3.34%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 08:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.56%EV -6.85%E -5.91%K -42.84%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -16.27%E -3.83%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-24 09:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -6.85%E -5.91%K -42.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -17.25%E -4.11%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -2.04%E -1.67%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -21.19%E -5.30%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 09:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15% | 0.3% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 0.9% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13% | 3.5% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24% | 4.6% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.10% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.90% | 9.1% | 2026-05-24 09:20 |