L’École des cotes

Jakub Mensik v Joao Fonseca

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-02 18:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jakub Mensik (Local)

Prévision 33.97%2.94cote équitable
EV +8.71%
Avantage +2.72%
Kelly +3.96%
Croissance +0.345%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.82%33.87%33.92%35.37%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.652.822.803.2037.74%35.52%35.71%31.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Joao Fonseca (Visiteur)

Prévision 66.03%1.51cote équitable
EV -1.62%
Avantage -1.09%
Kelly -3.30%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.49

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
64.63%66.13%66.08%70.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.361.431.441.4973.53%69.71%69.44%67.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
BetRivers3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +8.71%E +2.72%K +3.96%G +0.345%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -10.20%E -7.50%K -28.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-02 18:05
Pinnacle2.93I 34.13%NM 33.26%EV -0.460%E -0.157%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.74%EV -3.60%E -2.47%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.6%2026-06-02 18:20
1xBet2.92I 34.25%NM 32.72%EV -0.800%E -0.274%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.28%EV -6.24%E -4.40%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:20
Coolbet2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -1.48%E -0.510%K -0.779%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -3.60%E -2.47%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-02 18:19
Unibet (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.48%E -0.510%K -0.779%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-02 18:14
Codere (IT)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.48%E -0.510%K -0.779%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-02 18:15
Hard Rock Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.48%E -0.510%K -0.779%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-02 18:18
PMU (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.48%E -0.510%K -0.779%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-02 18:19
Marathon Bet2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -1.82%E -0.629%K -0.962%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-02 18:20
Unibet2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:19
Unibet (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:19
Casumo2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:20
LeoVegas2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:20
Unibet (NL)2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:19
Grosvenor2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:19
FanDuel2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:20
Svenska Spel2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:19
betPARX2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:20
Bally Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:20
ATG (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.16%E -0.750%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-02 18:19
BetOnline.ag2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.13%EV -3.60%E -2.47%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-02 18:20
LowVig.ag2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.13%EV -3.60%E -2.47%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-02 18:20
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-02 18:18
BetAnything2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-02 18:19
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.24%E -4.40%K -14.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-02 18:19
LiveScore Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-02 18:19
Virgin Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.18%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.90%E -4.89%K -16.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-02 18:19
SportsBet2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -3.52%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-02 18:18
NetBet (FR)2.82I 35.46%NM 33.49%EV -4.20%E -1.49%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.51%EV -6.24%E -4.40%K -14.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-02 18:15
GTbets2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -1.62%E -1.09%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.8%2026-06-02 18:15
Unibet (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.94%E -2.00%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-02 18:20
Winamax (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.94%E -2.00%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-02 18:20
theScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -2.94%E -2.00%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-02 18:19
Bet Right2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-02 18:19
BetMGM2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-02 18:19
Tipico (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.24%E -4.40%K -14.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-02 18:19
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.88%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-02 18:19
MyBookie.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-02 18:20
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-02 18:19
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-02 18:20
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-02 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:19
Betclic (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:14
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:20
TAB2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:19
Everygame2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:17
888sport2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:20
William Hill2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:19
888sport (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:19
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-02 18:19
PointsBet (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.58%E -3.90%K -12.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-02 18:20
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-02 18:19
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-02 18:20
Bet Victor2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-02 18:13
Fliff2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -6.58%E -2.39%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -8.88%E -6.44%K -23.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-02 18:20
DraftKings2.71I 36.90%NM 35.17%EV -7.93%E -2.93%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -2.94%E -2.00%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-02 18:20
Betsson2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.27%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-02 18:20
NordicBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.27%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-02 18:20
Fanatics2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.27%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.92%E -3.42%K -11.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-02 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.27%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-02 18:20
Coral2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.27%E -3.06%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.56%E -5.40%K -18.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-02 18:20
Caesars2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.97%E -3.76%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.26%E -2.94%K -9.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-02 18:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%0.3%2026-06-02 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-06-02 18:20
Matchbook2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-06-02 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-06-02 18:20
Novig2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25%1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75%1.4%2026-06-02 18:20
Smarkets2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%2.5%2026-06-02 18:20