Language:English
Francisco Comesana v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francisco Comesana (Local)
Prediction 25.15%3.98fair odd
EV +13.15%
Edge +2.92%
Kelly +3.76%
Growth +0.494%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%24.94%25.74%29.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.763.654.5031.25%26.57%27.40%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 74.85%1.34fair odd
EV +0.305%
Edge +0.228%
Kelly +0.898%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.64%75.06%74.26%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.261.271.3486.96%79.18%78.43%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Comesana (Local): 25.15%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 74.85%. For Francisco Comesana (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +13.15%E +2.92%K +3.76%G +0.494% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -8.68%E -7.11%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +13.15%E +2.92%K +3.76%G +0.494% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -12.42%E -10.62%K -73.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +13.15%E +2.92%K +3.76%G +0.494% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -12.42%E -10.62%K -73.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV +8.12%E +1.89%K +2.46%G +0.200% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -10.17%E -8.48%K -50.87%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +6.87%E +1.62%K +2.11%G +0.145% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -8.68%E -7.11%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +5.61%E +1.34%K +1.75%G +0.098% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.93%E -6.45%K -34.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.82%EV +4.60%E +1.11%K +1.46%G +0.067% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.18%EV -7.93%E -6.45%K -34.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV +3.10%E +0.755%K +0.998%G +0.031% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -8.68%E -7.11%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV +3.10%E +0.755%K +0.998%G +0.031% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -8.68%E -7.11%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV +3.10%E +0.755%K +0.998%G +0.031% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -10.92%E -9.18%K -57.49%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +0.581%E +0.145%K +0.194%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.68%E -7.11%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +0.581%E +0.145%K +0.194%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.68%E -7.11%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +0.581%E +0.145%K +0.194%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.68%E -7.11%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV +0.581%E +0.145%K +0.194%G +0.001% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -12.42%E -10.62%K -73.06%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV +0.581%E +0.145%K +0.194%G +0.001% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 77.67%EV -13.92%E -12.10%K -92.78%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.93%E -3.89%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -2.69%E -2.07%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.93%E -3.89%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.68%E -7.11%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.19%E -3.27%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 15:21 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.43%E -5.15%K -25.73%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -1.94%E -1.48%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.93%E -3.89%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -8.72%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -1.94%E -1.48%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -8.72%E -2.40%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -1.94%E -1.48%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-28 15:27 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.12%EV -8.97%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.88%EV -4.19%E -3.27%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-28 15:21 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.61I 27.70%NM 27.07%EV -9.23%E -2.56%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.93%EV +0.305%E +0.228%K +0.898%G +0.003% | 2.3% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.19%E -3.27%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.93%E -3.89%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.43%E -5.15%K -25.73%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -10.73%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -2.69%E -2.07%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-28 15:28 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -11.24%E -3.18%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -1.94%E -1.48%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-28 15:28 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -1.94%E -1.48%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-28 15:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -1.94%E -1.48%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-28 15:24 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.69%E -2.07%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 15:28 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.44%E -2.66%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-28 15:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -13.25%E -3.84%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -2.69%E -2.07%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-28 15:28 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -2.69%E -2.07%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-28 15:28 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.19%E -3.27%K -14.95%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-28 15:26 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -15.76%E -4.71%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -1.19%E -0.903%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-28 15:24 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -15.76%E -4.71%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -1.19%E -0.903%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-28 15:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -17.02%E -5.16%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -0.443%E -0.333%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 15:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -17.02%E -5.16%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -1.94%E -1.48%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-28 15:28 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -19.54%E -6.10%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -0.443%E -0.333%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-28 15:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 0.3% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 0.3% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 1.3% | 2026-05-28 15:30 |
| Novig◎ | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.54% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.46% | 2.5% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59% | 3.7% | 2026-05-28 15:29 |