Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Matteo Arnaldi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 48.80%2.05fair odd
EV +0.523%
Edge +0.254%
Kelly +0.494%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 2.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.35%48.87%48.81%51.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.941.932.0654.64%51.64%51.81%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Arnaldi (Visit)
Prediction 51.20%1.95fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.67%51.13%51.19%53.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.861.851.9356.50%53.71%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 48.80%; Matteo Arnaldi (Visit): 51.20%. For Frances Tiafoe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.523%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV +0.523%E +0.254%K +0.494%G +0.003% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -8.86%E -4.98%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-01 17:33 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.57%EV +0.035%E +0.017%K +0.034%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.43%EV -4.76%E -2.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -1.43%E -0.707%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -6.81%E -3.74%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -1.43%E -0.707%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -6.81%E -3.74%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.40%E -1.20%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-01 17:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.40%E -1.20%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.40%E -1.20%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.70%EV -3.38%E -1.71%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.30%EV -3.74%E -1.99%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-01 17:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.38%E -1.71%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.76%E -2.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.38%E -1.71%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-01 17:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -3.38%E -1.71%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -7.84%E -4.35%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -4.36%E -2.22%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -3.74%E -1.99%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-01 17:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.25%E -2.27%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-01 17:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 16:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.84%E -2.48%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-01 17:28 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -5.33%E -2.75%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -2.20%E -1.15%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -5.33%E -2.75%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -2.20%E -1.15%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-01 16:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.33%E -2.75%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.25%E -2.27%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.33%E -2.75%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.76%E -2.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.33%E -2.75%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-01 17:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.18%E -0.611%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.18%E -0.611%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.18%E -0.611%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.18%E -0.611%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.18%E -0.611%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.82%E -3.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.18%E -0.611%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.82%E -3.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.74%E -1.99%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-01 16:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -6.31%E -3.29%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -1.69%E -0.881%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -6.31%E -3.29%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -1.69%E -0.881%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -6.31%E -3.29%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -4.25%E -2.27%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.34%EV -6.31%E -3.29%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -4.25%E -2.27%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.20%E -1.15%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.20%E -1.15%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.20%E -1.15%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.28%E -2.85%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-01 17:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-01 16:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.84%E -4.35%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.84%E -4.35%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -9.37%E -5.29%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-01 17:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -6.80%E -3.56%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -9.37%E -5.29%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.28%E -3.83%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.72%E -1.43%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.28%E -3.83%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.72%E -1.43%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -7.77%E -4.11%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -3.23%E -1.71%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -7.77%E -4.11%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -3.23%E -1.71%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -8.26%E -4.39%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -3.74%E -1.99%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.75%E -4.68%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.25%E -2.27%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -10.70%E -5.85%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -1.18%E -0.611%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-01 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.70%E -5.85%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.30%E -3.44%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50% | 0.3% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50% | 0.3% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 0.7% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89% | 0.9% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78% | 1.7% | 2026-06-01 17:40 |