Language:English
Eliot Spizzirri v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Eliot Spizzirri (Local)
Prediction 11.69%8.56fair odd
EV +40.26%
Edge +3.36%
Kelly +3.66%
Growth +1.47%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.90%11.44%11.80%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.448.5012.0014.81%11.85%11.76%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 88.31%1.13fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -3.43%
Kelly -41.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.21%88.56%88.20%92.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.071.071.0997.09%93.80%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eliot Spizzirri (Local): 11.69%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 88.31%. For Eliot Spizzirri (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.56. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +40.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +40.26%E +3.36%K +3.66%G +1.47% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -9.04%E -8.78%K -301.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 10:53 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 10.80I 9.26%NM 8.86%EV +26.24%E +2.43%K +2.68%G +0.702% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.14%EV -7.27%E -6.93%K -145.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 10.78I 9.28%NM 8.80%EV +26.00%E +2.41%K +2.66%G +0.691% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.20%EV -8.16%E -7.84%K -203.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 10.78I 9.28%NM 8.80%EV +26.00%E +2.41%K +2.66%G +0.691% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.20%EV -8.16%E -7.84%K -203.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +16.89%E +1.69%K +1.88%G +0.317% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -6.39%E -6.03%K -106.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +16.89%E +1.69%K +1.88%G +0.317% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -6.39%E -6.03%K -106.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +16.89%E +1.69%K +1.88%G +0.317% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -8.16%E -7.84%K -203.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.33%EV +7.53%E +0.819%K +0.919%G +0.069% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.67%EV -6.39%E -6.03%K -106.50%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 10:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +5.20%E +0.577%K +0.650%G +0.034% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-25 10:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +5.20%E +0.577%K +0.650%G +0.034% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -7.27%E -6.93%K -145.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +5.20%E +0.577%K +0.650%G +0.034% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -7.27%E -6.93%K -145.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +5.20%E +0.577%K +0.650%G +0.034% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -7.27%E -6.93%K -145.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +5.20%E +0.577%K +0.650%G +0.034% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -7.27%E -6.93%K -145.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 10:51 |
| TAB🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV +5.20%E +0.577%K +0.650%G +0.034% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -8.16%E -7.84%K -203.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.98I 11.14%NM 10.65%EV +4.96%E +0.553%K +0.622%G +0.031% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.35%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-25 10:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.82%EV +4.03%E +0.453%K +0.510%G +0.021% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.18%EV -4.62%E -4.28%K -57.80%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.84I 11.31%NM 10.89%EV +3.33%E +0.376%K +0.424%G +0.014% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.11%EV -4.62%E -4.28%K -57.80%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV +2.27%E +0.260%K +0.294%G +0.007% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 8.62I 11.60%NM 11.23%EV +0.755%E +0.088%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.77%EV -3.74%E -3.43%K -41.56%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-25 10:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.63%EV -3.74%E -3.43%K -41.56%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-25 10:58 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 10:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 10:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 10:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -0.647%E -0.076%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 10:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.13%EV -2.99%E -0.360%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.87%EV -8.16%E -7.84%K -203.90%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -3.74%E -3.43%K -41.56%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-25 10:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -3.74%E -3.43%K -41.56%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 10:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 10:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 10:56 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.39%E -6.03%K -106.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.39%E -6.03%K -106.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.39%E -6.03%K -106.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -6.49%E -0.811%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.39%E -6.03%K -106.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -12.34%E -1.64%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.74%E -3.43%K -41.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 10:58 |
| Everygame🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -12.34%E -1.64%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.62%E -4.28%K -57.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-25 10:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -12.34%E -1.64%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -12.34%E -1.64%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -12.34%E -1.64%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -7.27%E -6.93%K -145.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -12.34%E -1.64%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -7.27%E -6.93%K -145.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.99%EV -14.67%E -2.01%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.01%EV -3.74%E -3.43%K -41.56%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -15.26%E -2.10%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -4.62%E -4.28%K -57.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-25 10:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -15.26%E -2.10%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -4.62%E -4.28%K -57.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-25 10:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.15%EV -15.84%E -2.20%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.85%EV -3.74%E -3.43%K -41.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -18.18%E -2.60%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -4.62%E -4.28%K -57.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -18.18%E -2.60%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -5.51%E -5.15%K -78.67%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -18.18%E -2.60%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 87.17%EV -9.04%E -8.78%K -301.31%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -21.10%E -3.13%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.21%EV -4.62%E -4.28%K -57.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-25 10:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.17% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.83% | 0.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.17% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.83% | 0.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.17% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.83% | 0.3% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.36% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.64% | 0.5% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 0.9% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |
| Novig◎ | 9.01I 11.10%NM 10.70% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.30% | 3.7% | 2026-05-25 11:00 |