Language:English
Daniel Merida Aguilar v Ben Shelton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 15.74%6.35fair odd
EV +35.37%
Edge +4.11%
Kelly +4.65%
Growth +1.65%
assuming max odds 8.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.16%16.91%14.78%25.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.755.435.608.6026.67%18.41%17.86%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ben Shelton (Visit)
Prediction 84.26%1.19fair odd
EV +8.70%
Edge +6.74%
Kelly +29.98%
Growth +2.61%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.85%83.09%85.22%88.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.161.131.2994.34%86.33%88.50%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 15.74%; Ben Shelton (Visit): 84.26%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.35. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +35.37%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.76%EV -38.30%E -9.77%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.24%EV +8.70%E +6.74%K +29.98%G +2.61% | 3.0% | 2026-05-25 16:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -37.83%E -9.58%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV +7.01%E +5.52%K +25.96%G +1.82% | 4.1% | 2026-05-25 16:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -40.19%E -10.58%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV +7.01%E +5.52%K +25.96%G +1.82% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 16:18 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.21I 23.75%NM 23.03%EV -33.73%E -8.01%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.97%EV +6.17%E +4.89%K +23.72%G +1.46% | 3.1% | 2026-05-25 16:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.23%EV -37.98%E -9.64%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV +6.17%E +4.89%K +23.72%G +1.46% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 16:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -38.61%E -9.90%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV +6.17%E +4.89%K +23.72%G +1.46% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 16:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -39.40%E -10.23%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV +6.17%E +4.89%K +23.72%G +1.46% | 5.3% | 2026-05-25 16:27 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -40.97%E -10.93%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV +6.17%E +4.89%K +23.72%G +1.46% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 16:26 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -40.97%E -10.93%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV +6.17%E +4.89%K +23.72%G +1.46% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 16:26 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -37.04%E -9.26%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +5.32%E +4.26%K +21.30%G +1.13% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -37.04%E -9.26%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +5.32%E +4.26%K +21.30%G +1.13% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 16:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -37.04%E -9.26%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +5.32%E +4.26%K +21.30%G +1.13% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 16:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -37.83%E -9.58%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV +5.32%E +4.26%K +21.30%G +1.13% | 5.3% | 2026-05-25 16:16 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -38.30%E -9.77%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV +5.32%E +4.26%K +21.30%G +1.13% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 16:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -39.40%E -10.23%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV +5.32%E +4.26%K +21.30%G +1.13% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 16:27 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -40.19%E -10.58%K -14.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV +5.32%E +4.26%K +21.30%G +1.13% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 16:22 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -33.89%E -8.07%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV +4.48%E +3.61%K +18.68%G +0.837% | 4.5% | 2026-05-25 16:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -35.47%E -8.65%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV +4.48%E +3.61%K +18.68%G +0.837% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.37I 22.88%NM 21.96%EV -31.22%E -7.14%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.04%EV +3.64%E +2.96%K +15.82%G +0.576% | 4.2% | 2026-05-25 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -37.04%E -9.26%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV +3.64%E +2.96%K +15.82%G +0.576% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 16:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -35.47%E -8.65%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV +2.80%E +2.29%K +12.71%G +0.356% | 6.4% | 2026-05-25 16:31 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.79%EV -27.44%E -5.95%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.21%EV +1.95%E +1.62%K +9.31%G +0.182% | 4.3% | 2026-05-25 16:32 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -13.43%E -2.44%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.10%E -2.70%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -13.43%E -2.44%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.10%E -2.70%K -20.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 16:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.49%E -1.65%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.94%E -3.46%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.49%E -1.65%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.94%E -3.46%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.49%E -1.65%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.94%E -3.46%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.49%E -1.65%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.94%E -3.46%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 16:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.49%E -1.65%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.94%E -3.46%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 16:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.56%E -0.926%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.56%E -0.926%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -15.00%E -2.78%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -17.36%E -3.31%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -4.79%E -4.24%K -36.82%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.85%E -2.12%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.85%E -2.12%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.85%E -2.12%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -13.43%E -2.44%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-25 16:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -16.58%E -3.13%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.55%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -17.36%E -3.31%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.42%EV -5.63%E -5.03%K -46.91%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +5.46%E +0.815%K +0.958%G +0.052% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -6.47%E -5.83%K -58.83%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +2.31%E +0.356%K +0.420%G +0.010% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.47%E -5.83%K -58.83%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -11.85%E -2.12%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -6.47%E -5.83%K -58.83%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-25 16:37 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +18.05%E +2.41%K +2.78%G +0.501% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -7.31%E -6.65%K -73.14%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +10.18%E +1.45%K +1.70%G +0.173% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -7.31%E -6.65%K -73.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +6.25%E +0.925%K +1.09%G +0.068% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.31%E -6.65%K -73.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +6.25%E +0.925%K +1.09%G +0.068% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -7.31%E -6.65%K -73.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +2.31%E +0.356%K +0.420%G +0.010% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -7.31%E -6.65%K -73.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -1.62%E -0.260%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -7.31%E -6.65%K -73.14%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -5.56%E -0.926%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -7.31%E -6.65%K -73.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +10.18%E +1.45%K +1.70%G +0.173% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -8.16%E -7.48%K -90.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV +2.31%E +0.356%K +0.420%G +0.010% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -8.16%E -7.48%K -90.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-25 16:38 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -17.36%E -3.31%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 82.81%EV -8.16%E -7.48%K -90.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.16%EV +35.37%E +4.11%K +4.65%G +1.65% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.84%EV -9.00%E -8.33%K -112.49%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +10.18%E +1.45%K +1.70%G +0.173% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -9.00%E -8.33%K -112.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +10.18%E +1.45%K +1.70%G +0.173% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -9.00%E -8.33%K -112.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +10.18%E +1.45%K +1.70%G +0.173% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -9.00%E -8.33%K -112.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +10.18%E +1.45%K +1.70%G +0.173% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -9.00%E -8.33%K -112.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +2.31%E +0.356%K +0.420%G +0.010% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -9.00%E -8.33%K -112.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +2.31%E +0.356%K +0.420%G +0.010% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -9.00%E -8.33%K -112.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.84%EV -2.41%E -0.389%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.16%EV -9.00%E -8.33%K -112.49%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +10.18%E +1.45%K +1.70%G +0.173% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -9.84%E -9.20%K -140.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV +2.31%E +0.356%K +0.420%G +0.010% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.98%EV -10.68%E -10.08%K -178.08%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 0.9% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.43% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.57% | 1.7% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.80% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.20% | 2.9% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.14% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.86% | 4.0% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |
| Novig◎ | 7.94I 12.59%NM 11.48% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.52% | 9.7% | 2026-05-25 16:40 |