Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Toby Samuel
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 85.98%1.16fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -3.30%
Kelly -30.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.70%86.31%85.53%89.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.091.091.1294.34%91.67%91.74%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toby Samuel (Visit)
Prediction 14.02%7.13fair odd
EV +33.18%
Edge +3.49%
Kelly +3.90%
Growth +1.30%
assuming max odds 9.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.04%13.69%14.47%16.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.607.076.509.5017.86%14.14%15.38%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 85.98%; Toby Samuel (Visit): 14.02%. For Toby Samuel (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.13. 23 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.18%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -8.86%E -8.36%K -147.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +33.18%E +3.49%K +3.90%G +1.30% | 4.9% | 2026-05-25 09:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -8.86%E -8.36%K -147.67%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +33.18%E +3.49%K +3.90%G +1.30% | 4.9% | 2026-05-25 09:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.59%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.26%G +0.000% | 9.29I 10.76%NM 10.41%EV +30.24%E +3.25%K +3.65%G +1.10% | 3.4% | 2026-05-25 09:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.58%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.42%EV +28.98%E +3.15%K +3.53%G +1.02% | 4.3% | 2026-05-25 08:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.57%EV -8.86%E -8.36%K -147.67%G +0.000% | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.43%EV +27.57%E +3.03%K +3.40%G +0.939% | 5.3% | 2026-05-25 08:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV +21.97%E +2.52%K +2.85%G +0.627% | 5.0% | 2026-05-25 09:01 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 88.69%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 8.63I 11.59%NM 11.31%EV +20.99%E +2.43%K +2.75%G +0.577% | 2.5% | 2026-05-25 08:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -8.86%E -8.36%K -147.67%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +19.16%E +2.25%K +2.56%G +0.490% | 6.1% | 2026-05-25 09:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -8.86%E -8.36%K -147.67%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +19.16%E +2.25%K +2.56%G +0.490% | 6.1% | 2026-05-25 09:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.75%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 8.44I 11.85%NM 11.25%EV +18.32%E +2.17%K +2.46%G +0.451% | 5.3% | 2026-05-25 09:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.70%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.30%EV +17.76%E +2.11%K +2.40%G +0.426% | 5.4% | 2026-05-25 09:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.13%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 8.09I 12.36%NM 11.87%EV +13.41%E +1.66%K +1.89%G +0.254% | 4.1% | 2026-05-25 09:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.13%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 8.09I 12.36%NM 11.87%EV +13.41%E +1.66%K +1.89%G +0.254% | 4.1% | 2026-05-25 09:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.12%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.26%G +0.000% | 8.01I 12.48%NM 11.88%EV +12.29%E +1.53%K +1.75%G +0.216% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 09:11 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +12.15%E +1.52%K +1.74%G +0.211% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 09:06 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +12.15%E +1.52%K +1.74%G +0.211% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 08:58 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +12.15%E +1.52%K +1.74%G +0.211% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 09:07 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +12.15%E +1.52%K +1.74%G +0.211% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 09:06 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.26%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV +8.65%E +1.12%K +1.28%G +0.111% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +5.14%E +0.686%K +0.791%G +0.041% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 08:58 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +5.14%E +0.686%K +0.791%G +0.041% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 08:58 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +5.14%E +0.686%K +0.791%G +0.041% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 08:58 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +5.14%E +0.686%K +0.791%G +0.041% | 5.1% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -1.87%E -0.267%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -1.87%E -0.267%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.26%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -1.87%E -0.267%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -1.87%E -0.267%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -1.87%E -0.267%K -0.311%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.84%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.85%G +0.000% | 6.79I 14.73%NM 14.16%EV -4.81%E -0.708%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 09:18 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 09:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.88%E -1.37%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -12.38%E -1.98%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -12.38%E -1.98%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -12.38%E -1.98%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.15%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -12.38%E -1.98%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.15%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -12.38%E -1.98%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.96%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.26%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.04%EV -14.48%E -2.37%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.85%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.56%E -4.11%K -41.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-25 09:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.42%E -4.93%K -54.21%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -7.14%E -6.61%K -89.26%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -15.89%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.18%EV -6.28%E -5.76%K -69.79%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -18.69%E -3.22%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.85%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -19.39%E -3.37%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.85%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -19.39%E -3.37%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -3.70%E -3.30%K -30.85%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -19.39%E -3.37%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.96%EV -8.00%E -7.48%K -114.29%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.04%EV -21.49%E -3.84%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.44% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56% | 0.7% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.23% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77% | 1.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.23% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77% | 1.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 88.25% | 8.26I 12.11%NM 11.75% | 3.0% | 2026-05-25 09:20 |