Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 78.06%1.28fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -9.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.94%77.98%78.29%80.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.221.2586.96%82.58%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 21.94%4.56fair odd
EV +5.07%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.068%
assuming max odds 4.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.49%22.02%21.71%24.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.364.404.7925.97%22.92%22.73%20.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 78.06%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 21.94%. For Jakub Mensik (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.56. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.07%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.57%EV -3.98%E -3.24%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 20.43%EV +5.07%E +1.06%K +1.34%G +0.068% | 2.2% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -7.88%E -6.68%K -43.80%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +4.20%E +0.884%K +1.12%G +0.047% | 5.8% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -10.23%E -8.89%K -68.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV +4.20%E +0.884%K +1.12%G +0.047% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -10.23%E -8.89%K -68.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV +4.20%E +0.884%K +1.12%G +0.047% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -10.23%E -8.89%K -68.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV +4.20%E +0.884%K +1.12%G +0.047% | 8.0% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.07%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.93%EV +1.13%E +0.244%K +0.312%G +0.004% | 3.7% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.07%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.93%EV +1.13%E +0.244%K +0.312%G +0.004% | 3.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.907%E +0.197%K +0.252%G +0.002% | 5.1% | 2026-05-29 15:41 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.29%E -0.286%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.29%E -0.286%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-29 15:43 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.29%E -0.286%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.29%E -0.286%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.54%E -4.58%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.29%E -0.286%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.29%E -0.286%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.29%E -0.286%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.29%E -0.286%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:48 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:42 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-29 15:47 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-29 15:47 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-29 15:47 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -7.10%E -5.97%K -37.39%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.88%E -6.68%K -43.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.88%E -6.68%K -43.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.48%E -0.791%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.35%EV -5.54%E -4.58%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.65%EV -3.92%E -0.895%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 15:48 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -4.58%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -7.10%E -5.97%K -37.39%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -4.58%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -5.02%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-29 15:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.02%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -5.54%E -4.58%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -5.67%E -1.32%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-29 15:48 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.77%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 15:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.54%E -4.58%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -6.77%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.54%E -4.58%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -6.77%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.54%E -4.58%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -6.77%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.77%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.20%E -2.58%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -7.87%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.87%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-29 15:46 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.91%EV -3.20%E -2.58%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.09%EV -9.40%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -2.42%E -1.94%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -10.06%E -2.45%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.20%E -2.58%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.20%E -2.58%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-29 15:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-29 15:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.32%E -5.27%K -31.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-29 15:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -4.76%E -3.90%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -15.55%E -4.04%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-29 15:46 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.13% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.87% | 1.1% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-05-29 15:50 |