A Escola das Odds

Luca Nardi v Jiri Lehecka

Início: 2026-02-24 14:20 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

44 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Luca Nardi (Local)

Previsão 23.40%4.27odd justa
EV +12.10%
Vantagem +2.53%
Kelly +3.19%
Crescimento +0.386%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.79

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.03%23.26%23.66%25.53%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.504.104.104.7928.57%24.37%24.39%20.88%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Jiri Lehecka (Visitante)

Previsão 76.60%1.31odd justa
EV -4.25%
Vantagem -3.40%
Kelly -17.01%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
74.47%76.74%76.34%79.97%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.201.221.221.2583.33%81.69%81.97%80.00%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (44 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
DraftKings4.79I 20.88%NM 20.03%EV +12.10%E +2.53%K +3.19%G +0.386%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.97%EV -8.08%E -6.74%K -40.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-24 13:45
Pinnacle4.53I 22.08%NM 21.35%EV +6.01%E +1.33%K +1.70%G +0.102%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.65%EV -5.78%E -4.70%K -25.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-24 13:55
FanDuel4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +0.630%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-24 13:39
Bet Right4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +0.630%E +0.146%K +0.191%G +0.001%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-24 14:05
Unibet (SE)4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:40
Unibet (NL)4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
TABtouch4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:40
Grosvenor4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:40
BetRivers4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
Virgin Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:40
Casumo4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
LeoVegas4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
Betway4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 14:05
LiveScore Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
Unibet4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
ATG (SE)4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:40
Svenska Spel4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
betPARX4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
Bally Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:39
Hard Rock Bet4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -0.540%E -0.127%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-24 13:49
Betr (AU)4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -2.88%E -0.694%K -0.914%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-24 14:05
Fliff4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -5.22%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-24 14:05
Fanatics4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.25%E -3.40%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 13:40
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.25%E -3.40%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 13:39
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.25%E -3.40%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 13:55
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.25%E -3.40%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 13:55
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.25%E -3.40%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-24 13:55
Betsson4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.02%E -4.05%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 13:39
NordicBet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.02%E -4.05%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 13:40
PointsBet (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.02%E -4.05%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 13:40
Winamax (DE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.02%E -4.05%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 13:40
BetMGM4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.02%E -4.05%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 13:39
theScore Bet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.02%E -4.05%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 13:39
Caesars4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-24 13:40
Everygame4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.08%E -6.74%K -40.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-24 13:54
Bet Victor4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.39%E -1.60%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.08%E -6.74%K -40.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-24 14:02
Ladbrokes (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.73%E -2.24%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-24 13:40
Coral3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -8.73%E -2.24%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-24 13:39
Neds3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.07%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-24 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.07%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-24 13:39
BoyleSports3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.24%E -3.26%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.55%E -5.37%K -29.78%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-24 13:39
Winamax (FR)3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -16.92%E -4.77%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.74%EV -8.08%E -6.74%K -40.41%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-24 13:40
Betclic (FR)3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -18.09%E -5.17%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.47%EV -8.08%E -6.74%K -40.41%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-24 13:38
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (1)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%2.9%2026-02-24 14:00