Language:English
Taylor Fritz v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Taylor Fritz (Local)
Prediction 60.83%1.64fair odd
EV -0.843%
Edge -0.517%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.94%60.85%60.80%61.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.561.6366.67%64.13%64.10%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 39.17%2.55fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.832%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.25%39.15%39.20%41.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.402.402.5044.44%41.73%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Taylor Fritz (Local): 60.83%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 39.17%. For Taylor Fritz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.63, with an expected value of -0.843%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -0.843%E -0.517%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -8.35%E -3.57%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-15 06:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.67%E -1.67%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-16 18:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.08%E -0.832%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 17:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.08%E -0.832%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 18:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -2.47%E -0.993%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 15:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -2.47%E -0.993%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-16 15:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.04%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-16 11:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 18:16 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.28%E -2.06%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 15:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.88%E -2.46%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.04%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 18:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.88%E -2.46%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.04%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.88%E -2.46%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 18:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -3.88%E -2.46%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-16 17:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -3.65%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-16 07:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.04%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-16 18:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 05:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 09:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 14:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 06:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 14:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.49%E -2.86%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 14:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.82%E -1.98%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.21%E -2.15%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 17:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 14:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 18:17 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.10%E -3.27%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 17:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 17:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 18:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 18:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -7.17%E -3.03%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 14:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -7.17%E -3.03%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 14:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 05:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.71%E -3.68%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 18:13 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.25%EV -3.26%E -1.32%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.00%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-16 14:17 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -6.39%E -2.67%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 07:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 17:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 18:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 17:28 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 18:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 18:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 06:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 06:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.78%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-16 18:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -6.93%E -4.53%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -11.87%E -5.28%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-16 18:18 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.53%E -4.96%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-16 03:03 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.75%E -5.83%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.96%E -3.39%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-16 18:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.94% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.06% | 0.3% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98% | 2.1% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23% | 2.1% | 2026-08-16 18:20 |