Language:English
Nuno Borges v Francisco Cerundolo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nuno Borges (Local)
Prediction 54.88%1.82fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.983%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%55.01%54.83%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.731.741.7961.73%57.78%57.47%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Francisco Cerundolo (Visit)
Prediction 45.12%2.22fair odd
EV +0.160%
Edge +0.072%
Kelly +0.131%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%44.99%45.17%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.092.2250.00%47.82%47.85%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuno Borges (Local): 54.88%; Francisco Cerundolo (Visit): 45.12%. For Francisco Cerundolo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.216. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.220, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.160%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -7.80%E -4.64%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV +0.160%E +0.072%K +0.131%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 18:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.35%E -5.00%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.742%E -0.337%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 18:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -11.09%E -6.85%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -0.742%E -0.337%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 18:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -11.09%E -6.85%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -0.742%E -0.337%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 18:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -9.44%E -5.72%K -14.53%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -1.64%E -0.754%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 18:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.55%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-16 18:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.55%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-16 18:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.55%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-16 18:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.60%E -3.26%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.00%E -1.39%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 19:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.15%E -3.60%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.00%E -1.39%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 19:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.70%E -3.94%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.00%E -1.39%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 19:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.70%E -3.94%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.00%E -1.39%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-16 19:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.25%E -4.29%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.00%E -1.39%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34%EV -1.76%E -0.983%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%EV -3.90%E -1.83%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 18:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.35%E -2.05%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-16 19:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-16 10:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.86%E -1.61%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-16 12:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 17:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 17:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 17:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 17:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 17:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 17:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 15:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 17:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.60%E -3.26%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-16 19:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.15%E -3.60%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-16 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -11.09%E -6.85%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -5.25%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-16 19:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -3.96%E -2.26%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.71%E -2.73%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 10:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -3.96%E -2.26%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.71%E -2.73%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 10:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -3.96%E -2.26%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.71%E -2.73%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 10:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.41%E -1.94%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.06%E -3.43%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 08:18 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.86%E -1.61%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 09:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.96%E -2.26%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 18:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.96%E -2.26%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 19:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.96%E -2.26%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 10:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 14:17 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.60%E -3.26%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 18:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.60%E -3.26%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.60%E -3.26%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 17:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.70%E -3.94%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 17:38 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.70%E -3.94%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-15 09:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.70%E -3.94%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 17:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.70%E -3.94%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 17:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.70%E -3.94%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 17:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -1.76%E -0.983%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-15 09:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -8.86%E -4.39%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-16 08:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.86%E -1.61%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.77%E -4.88%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-16 15:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31% | 0.3% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.19% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.81% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 0.9% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94% | 2.5% | 2026-08-16 19:05 |