Language:English
Novak Djokovic v Thiago Agustin Tirante
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Novak Djokovic (Local)
Prediction 75.91%1.32fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -7.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.62%75.82%75.88%76.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.2983.33%79.85%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit)
Prediction 24.09%4.15fair odd
EV -0.025%
Edge -0.006%
Kelly -0.008%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.01%24.18%24.12%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.863.854.1527.78%25.90%25.97%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Novak Djokovic (Local): 75.91%; Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit): 24.09%. For Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.151. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.150, with an expected value of -0.025%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.52%EV -2.08%E -1.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 24.48%EV -4.12%E -1.04%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-15 18:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.08%E -1.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 08:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.08%E -1.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 08:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.08%E -1.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 08:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -2.08%E -1.61%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 08:38 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -2.84%E -2.22%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-15 17:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.84%E -2.22%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 17:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.26%EV -3.59%E -2.83%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.74%EV -1.71%E -0.420%K -0.556%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-15 18:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.59%E -2.83%K -13.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.66%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -1.23%E -0.300%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-15 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -1.23%E -0.300%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -2.92%E -0.724%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -2.92%E -0.724%K -0.962%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:07 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.29%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.71%EV -7.49%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 17:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -4.35%E -3.46%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 15:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -1.23%E -0.300%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-15 09:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.50%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.50%EV -1.95%E -0.480%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 18:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -3.40%E -0.847%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-15 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 18:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 15:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 18:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 08:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 17:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 17:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-15 18:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 12:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.66%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 15:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.66%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 08:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 10:28 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.11%E -4.09%K -20.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 08:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.87%E -4.74%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -0.025%E -0.006%K -0.008%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 16:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.87%E -4.74%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.87%E -4.74%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-14 15:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.87%E -4.74%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 16:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -5.87%E -4.74%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -9.66%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 04:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -5.87%E -4.74%K -24.47%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -12.07%E -3.31%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-15 18:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-14 18:43 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 16:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 15:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -9.66%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 18:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -9.66%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 15:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.59%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -9.66%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 15:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%EV -8.15%E -6.73%K -38.81%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.25%E -1.88%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-15 18:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.91%E -7.42%K -44.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -3.64%E -0.910%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 07:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 0.1% | 2026-08-15 18:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 0.2% | 2026-08-15 18:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15% | 0.3% | 2026-08-15 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-08-15 18:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-08-15 18:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.20% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80% | 2.0% | 2026-08-15 18:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.03% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.97% | 2.2% | 2026-08-15 18:05 |