Language:English
Michael Zheng v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Michael Zheng (Local)
Prediction 36.49%2.74fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.515%
Kelly +0.804%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 2.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.20%36.62%36.59%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.592.602.7842.02%38.57%38.46%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 63.51%1.57fair odd
EV -0.283%
Edge -0.180%
Kelly -0.497%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%63.38%63.41%64.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.501.501.5768.97%66.74%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michael Zheng (Local): 36.49%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 63.51%. For Michael Zheng (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%EV +1.43%E +0.515%K +0.804%G +0.012% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80%EV -4.09%E -2.71%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV +0.337%E +0.123%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-18 14:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV +0.337%E +0.123%K +0.193%G +0.001% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-18 14:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -1.49%E -0.551%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -3.46%E -2.28%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.49%E -0.551%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-18 16:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.49%E -0.551%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.49%E -0.551%K -0.875%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.00%E -4.05%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.34%EV -2.22%E -0.827%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.66%EV -2.82%E -1.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.31%E -1.25%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-18 16:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.31%E -1.25%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.36%E -3.60%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-18 16:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.31%E -1.25%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.63%E -4.51%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -4.09%E -2.71%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-18 13:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-18 16:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -4.77%E -1.83%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.34%EV -4.77%E -1.83%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.66%EV -5.36%E -3.60%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-18 16:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 07:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.00%E -4.05%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-18 16:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.00%E -4.05%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.00%E -4.05%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.14%E -1.98%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.63%E -4.51%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -5.87%E -2.27%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -3.46%E -2.28%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-18 16:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.48%EV -6.60%E -2.58%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.52%EV -6.63%E -4.51%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.96%E -2.73%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.36%E -3.60%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.96%E -2.73%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.00%E -4.05%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.96%E -2.73%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.90%E -5.45%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-18 16:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.82%E -1.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.46%E -2.28%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 16:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.73%E -3.15%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-18 16:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -6.63%E -4.51%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-18 07:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.90%E -5.45%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-18 16:21 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -12.43%E -5.18%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -2.82%E -1.85%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 10:02 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -13.16%E -5.53%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -0.283%E -0.180%K -0.497%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 10:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 0.8% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 0.8% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 0.8% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14% | 1.0% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14% | 1.0% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| Novig◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91% | 1.1% | 2026-08-18 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.41% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.59% | 2.3% | 2026-08-18 16:30 |