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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Hamad Medjedovic v Marco Trungelliti

Inicio: 2026-08-14 20:45 UTC

Final: Hamad Medjedovic 0–2 Marco Trungelliti

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hamad Medjedovic (Local)

Predicción 64.61%1.55momio equitativo
EV -1.79%
Ventaja -1.18%
Kelly -3.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.22%64.55%64.49%65.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.421.481.481.5270.42%67.78%67.57%65.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Marco Trungelliti (Visitante)

Predicción 35.39%2.83momio equitativo
EV -0.917%
Ventaja -0.327%
Kelly -0.509%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.05%35.45%35.51%38.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.652.652.8041.67%37.75%37.74%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hamad Medjedovic (Local): 64.61%; Marco Trungelliti (Visitante): 35.39%. Para Marco Trungelliti (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.83. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.80, con un valor esperado de -0.917%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -1.79%E -1.18%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-14 15:14
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -1.79%E -1.18%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -11.53%E -4.61%K -7.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 20:44
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -1.79%E -1.18%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -15.07%E -6.28%K -10.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 20:44
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.55%EV -2.43%E -1.61%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.45%EV -2.69%E -0.977%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-14 20:44
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.47%EV -2.43%E -1.61%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.53%EV -3.04%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-14 20:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -6.93%E -2.64%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-14 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.29%E -2.78%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 17:39
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.29%E -2.78%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 18:09
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 20:20
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 20:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 20:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 20:20
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 20:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.53%E -4.61%K -7.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 17:40
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.08%E -2.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.53%E -4.61%K -7.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-14 17:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.73%E -2.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -1.98%E -0.714%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-14 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.73%E -2.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -1.98%E -0.714%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-14 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -0.917%E -0.327%K -0.509%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 20:40
BetAnything🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-14 17:40
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-14 20:29
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 14:59
Grosvenor🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:00
Casumo🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 14:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:00
TABtouch🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 14:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 14:59
BetRivers🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 14:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 14:59
betPARX🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 14:59
Bally Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:00
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 17:40
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.37%E -2.95%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.02%E -3.41%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -2.69%E -0.977%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-14 20:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.02%E -3.41%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -2.69%E -0.977%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-14 20:40
ReBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.02%E -3.41%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.02%E -3.41%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -5.02%E -3.41%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -5.52%E -2.07%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 20:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.02%E -3.41%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 20:34
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.02%E -3.41%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 20:20
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.52%EV -5.02%E -3.41%K -10.68%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.48%EV -9.41%E -3.68%K -6.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 18:09
GTbets🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.66%E -3.88%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 17:35
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.31%E -4.35%K -14.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 20:39
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.31%E -4.35%K -14.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 16:29
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.31%E -4.35%K -14.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 20:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.31%E -4.35%K -14.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-14 15:00
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.96%E -4.83%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.69%E -0.977%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 20:44
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.96%E -4.83%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.46%E -1.65%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 20:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.96%E -4.83%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 16:29
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -6.96%E -4.83%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -6.93%E -2.64%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 18:10
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.96%E -4.83%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.29%E -2.78%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 18:10
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.96%E -4.83%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 19:23
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.96%E -4.83%K -15.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.99%E -3.07%K -5.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 19:18
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -8.25%E -5.81%K -19.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -2.69%E -0.977%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:43
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.25%E -5.81%K -19.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -6.22%E -2.35%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-14 19:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -8.25%E -5.81%K -19.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -9.76%E -3.83%K -6.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 20:43
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-08-14 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-08-14 20:40
ProphetX◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-14 20:40
Matchbook◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-14 20:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-14 20:40
Novig◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.28%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72%2.1%2026-08-14 20:40