Language:English
Raphael Collignon v Alexei Popyrin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Raphael Collignon (Local)
Prediction 60.31%1.66fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.29%60.28%61.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.571.571.6365.79%63.56%63.69%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexei Popyrin (Visit)
Prediction 39.69%2.52fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.93%39.71%39.72%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.402.4544.44%42.03%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Raphael Collignon (Local): 60.31%; Alexei Popyrin (Visit): 39.69%. For Raphael Collignon (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.63, with an expected value of -1.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -1.69%E -1.04%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -1.69%E -1.04%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.00%EV -2.29%E -1.41%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.00%EV -3.56%E -1.47%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.29%E -1.41%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 17:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.29%E -1.41%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.71%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 17:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.89%E -1.80%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.77%E -1.13%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-05 17:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.50%E -2.19%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.77%E -1.13%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-05 17:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.50%E -2.19%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.50%E -2.19%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 12:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.50%E -2.19%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 19:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 17:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 20:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 11:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 12:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 12:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -3.96%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 17:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 17:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 12:53 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 11:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.36%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.36%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.36%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 17:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.36%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 17:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 12:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 12:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 12:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 12:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 16:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 11:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 17:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-05 11:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 11:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-05 04:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-05 20:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-05 20:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.32%E -5.48%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-05 11:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57% | 0.3% | 2026-08-05 20:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 0.5% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 0.6% | 2026-08-05 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 20:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 20:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.92% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 41.08% | 1.0% | 2026-08-05 20:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51% | 2.1% | 2026-08-05 20:00 |