Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Raphael Collignon v Alexei Popyrin

Início: 2026-08-05 20:23 UTC

Final: Raphael Collignon 0–2 Alexei Popyrin

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

65 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Raphael Collignon (Local)

Previsão 60.31%1.66odd justa
EV -1.69%
Vantagem -1.04%
Kelly -2.68%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.63

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
58.14%60.29%60.28%61.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.521.571.571.6365.79%63.56%63.69%61.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alexei Popyrin (Visitante)

Previsão 39.69%2.52odd justa
EV -2.77%
Vantagem -1.13%
Kelly -1.91%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.93%39.71%39.72%41.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.382.402.4544.44%42.03%41.67%40.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Raphael Collignon (Local): 60.31%; Alexei Popyrin (Visitante): 39.69%. Para Raphael Collignon (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.66. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 1.63, com valor esperado de -1.69%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (65 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -1.69%E -1.04%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-05 19:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -1.69%E -1.04%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-05 19:45
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.00%EV -2.29%E -1.41%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.00%EV -3.56%E -1.47%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-05 18:30
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.29%E -1.41%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-05 17:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.29%E -1.41%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.71%E -4.76%K -8.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 17:15
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.89%E -1.80%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.77%E -1.13%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-05 17:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.49%EV -3.50%E -2.19%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -2.77%E -1.13%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-05 17:45
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.50%E -2.19%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 18:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.50%E -2.19%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 12:55
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.50%E -2.19%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 19:35
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 11:45
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 20:05
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 11:44
BetUS🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 11:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 12:35
BetAnything🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.10%E -2.58%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV -3.96%E -1.64%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 17:44
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 17:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 18:00
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 12:53
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.70%E -2.98%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 11:05
Betsson🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.36%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 11:45
NordicBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.36%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 11:45
ReBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.36%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 17:10
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.36%E -1.81%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 19:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 11:45
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 11:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 18:00
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 11:45
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 17:15
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 11:45
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 12:40
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 12:40
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 11:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 16:00
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 11:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 11:45
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 17:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 17:59
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 18:00
Fliff🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.91%E -3.79%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-05 18:00
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -5.55%E -2.33%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-05 11:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-05 11:45
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.51%E -4.20%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 11:05
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.75%E -1.98%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 04:14
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.97%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -5.15%E -2.15%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 19:45
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-05 20:03
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.72%E -5.05%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.72%E -3.79%K -6.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-05 20:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -8.32%E -5.48%K -16.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -6.74%E -2.87%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-05 11:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57%0.3%2026-08-05 20:05
ProphetX◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%0.5%2026-08-05 19:45
Matchbook◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-08-05 20:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-08-05 20:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42%0.7%2026-08-05 20:00
Novig◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.92%2.41I 41.49%NM 41.08%1.0%2026-08-05 20:00
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%2.1%2026-08-05 20:00