Language:English
Luciano Darderi v Brandon Nakashima
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Luciano Darderi (Local)
Prediction 31.04%3.22fair odd
EV +0.877%
Edge +0.270%
Kelly +0.390%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.82%31.13%30.94%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.2535.71%33.42%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brandon Nakashima (Visit)
Prediction 68.96%1.45fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%68.87%69.06%70.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.391.391.4275.76%72.17%71.94%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Luciano Darderi (Local): 31.04%; Brandon Nakashima (Visit): 68.96%. For Luciano Darderi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.877%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%EV +0.877%E +0.270%K +0.390%G +0.003% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.675%E -0.211%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 16:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.675%E -0.211%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 16:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -2.23%E -0.707%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-11 16:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -2.23%E -0.707%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-11 16:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV -3.16%E -1.01%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.49%EV -5.52%E -4.03%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 16:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -3.47%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-11 16:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -3.47%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-11 16:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 14:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.90%E -5.11%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.97%E -6.80%K -28.04%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-11 16:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -4.40%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -4.40%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-11 14:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 16:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.14%E -2.98%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-11 16:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 16:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 16:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 16:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.52%E -4.03%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -8.28%E -6.23%K -25.10%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -5.64%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-11 16:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-11 16:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-11 14:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-11 14:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -7.50%E -2.52%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-11 02:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.44%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-11 16:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.44%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -8.44%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.08%E -1.46%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-10 23:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-11 12:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.76%E -1.96%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-10 22:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-11 13:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-11 13:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-11 13:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-11 13:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -4.83%E -3.50%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 13:38 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-11 14:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-11 16:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.21%E -4.57%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-11 16:18 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -11.54%E -4.05%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -2.08%E -1.46%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -13.09%E -4.68%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -2.08%E -1.46%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -13.09%E -4.68%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.45%E -2.47%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-11 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 0.7% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-08-11 16:20 |
| Novig◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 0.9% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85% | 5.3% | 2026-08-11 16:25 |