Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Learner Tien v Tommy Paul

2026-08-07 16:30 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Learner Tien (Local)

Predicción 40.90%2.44momio equitativo
EV +0.207%
Ventaja +0.085%
Kelly +0.143%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.90%40.83%40.92%42.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.292.302.4546.51%43.58%43.48%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tommy Paul (Visitante)

Predicción 59.10%1.69momio equitativo
EV -2.49%
Ventaja -1.51%
Kelly -3.83%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.37%59.17%59.08%61.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.601.611.6565.36%62.37%62.11%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Learner Tien (Local): 40.90%; Tommy Paul (Visitante): 59.10%. Para Learner Tien (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.44. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.45, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.207%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV +0.207%E +0.085%K +0.143%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -7.81%E -5.00%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-06 10:45
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -1.84%E -0.766%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -3.67%E -2.25%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-06 13:05
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -1.84%E -0.766%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.03%E -3.79%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 13:00
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -1.84%E -0.766%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.03%E -3.79%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-06 13:20
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -1.84%E -0.766%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.99%E -5.84%K -16.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-06 10:44
GTbets🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -2.25%E -0.940%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -6.62%E -4.19%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 12:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV -2.66%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -3.67%E -2.25%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-06 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV -2.66%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -3.67%E -2.25%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-06 13:00
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.66%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.26%E -2.63%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-06 12:59
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -2.66%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.85%E -3.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 13:05
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.66%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-06 12:55
SportsBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -2.66%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -9.58%E -6.26%K -18.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-06 13:00
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -3.06%E -1.29%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -9.58%E -6.26%K -18.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-06 10:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -3.06%E -1.29%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -9.58%E -6.26%K -18.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-06 10:45
FanDuel🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -3.47%E -1.47%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.85%E -3.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-06 13:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.88%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.03%E -3.79%K -10.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.88%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.62%E -4.19%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 13:04
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.88%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 10:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.88%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 10:45
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.11%E -2.20%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.85%E -3.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 12:59
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.11%E -2.20%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.85%E -3.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 12:59
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.26%E -2.63%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 13:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.26%E -2.63%K -6.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 12:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.85%E -3.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.85%E -3.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.85%E -3.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 12:54
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.44%E -3.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 13:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.44%E -3.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 13:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.44%E -3.40%K -9.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 13:00
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.03%E -3.79%K -10.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 12:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.03%E -3.79%K -10.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 13:00
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 12:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-06 13:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.83%EV -6.34%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.17%EV -6.62%E -4.19%K -11.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 12:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.97%E -3.54%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 12:54
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.97%E -3.54%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.67%E -2.25%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 13:00
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.97%E -3.54%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.26%E -2.63%K -6.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 12:59
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.97%E -3.54%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.85%E -3.01%K -7.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-06 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.97%E -3.54%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 13:00
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.97%E -3.54%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 12:59
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.97%E -3.54%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 12:58
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.97%E -3.54%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.21%E -4.60%K -12.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 12:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:54
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -2.49%E -1.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -10.02%E -4.55%K -8.35%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -7.81%E -5.00%K -13.94%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-06 12:59
ReBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 41.44%EV -10.43%E -4.76%K -8.76%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.56%EV -8.40%E -5.42%K -15.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-06 12:59
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.18%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -4.26%E -2.63%K -6.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-06 12:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.58%EV -12.06%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.42%EV -9.58%E -6.26%K -18.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-06 12:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.41I 41.49%NM 40.35%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.65%2.8%2026-08-06 12:55
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 41.69%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%12.1%2026-08-06 13:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 48.94%1.62I 61.73%NM 51.06%20.9%2026-08-06 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 49.24%1.62I 61.73%NM 50.76%21.6%2026-08-06 13:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 49.24%1.62I 61.73%NM 50.76%21.6%2026-08-06 13:25