Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joao Fonseca v Ben Shelton

2026-08-09 16:30 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joao Fonseca (Local)

Prediction 47.46%2.11fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.845%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.05%47.40%47.47%48.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.002.002.0752.63%50.08%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ben Shelton (Visit)

Prediction 52.54%1.90fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -3.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.97%52.60%52.53%53.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.791.801.8458.14%55.79%55.56%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Joao Fonseca (Local): 47.46%; Ben Shelton (Visit): 52.54%. For Joao Fonseca (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.07, with an expected value of -1.75%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -1.75%E -0.845%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-08 09:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 12:49
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.06%E -4.61%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 09:49
Dabble (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.06%E -4.61%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 09:50
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.70%E -1.32%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.06%E -4.61%K -10.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 09:55
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.27%EV -3.65%E -1.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.73%EV -4.38%E -2.41%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 09:16
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:26
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:25
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.12%E -2.04%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 07:26
Marathon Bet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -4.60%E -2.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 09:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -3.33%E -1.81%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 09:10
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-08 10:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.38%E -2.41%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 09:10
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.38%E -2.41%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 08:40
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.38%E -2.41%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 08:41
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.38%E -2.41%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 08:40
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:25
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:25
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:25
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:25
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:26
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 07:45
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 08:45
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 08:45
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.01%E -3.96%K -9.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 07:25
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.01%E -3.96%K -9.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 08:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -5.07%E -2.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.64%E -5.60%K -13.39%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 07:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.55%E -2.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.96%E -3.33%K -7.55%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 08:50
GTbets🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.02%E -3.04%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 07:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -6.02%E -3.04%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -4.91%E -2.71%K -6.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 09:44
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.02%E -3.04%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 07:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -6.50%E -3.30%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.49%E -3.64%K -8.32%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 08:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -6.50%E -3.30%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -8.06%E -4.61%K -10.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 07:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.97%E -3.56%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 08:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.97%E -3.56%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 07:26
Neds🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.97%E -3.56%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 07:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.44%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 07:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.44%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 08:40
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.44%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 07:25
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.44%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 08:41
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.44%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 12:55
BetAnything🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.44%E -3.82%K -7.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 13:10
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -8.39%E -4.35%K -9.03%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -8.06%E -4.61%K -10.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 08:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.80%EV -9.82%E -5.17%K -10.91%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -8.59%E -4.94%K -11.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 08:41
ReBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.80%EV -9.82%E -5.17%K -10.91%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -8.59%E -4.94%K -11.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 08:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.06I 48.54%NM 47.45%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.55%2.3%2026-08-08 13:05
Novig2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%2.9%2026-08-08 10:06
ProphetX2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%3.0%2026-08-08 12:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%5.9%2026-08-08 13:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%5.9%2026-08-08 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%5.9%2026-08-08 13:05
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%6.5%2026-08-08 13:20