Language:English
Joao Fonseca v Ben Shelton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joao Fonseca (Local)
Prediction 45.35%2.21fair odd
EV +2.94%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +2.32%
Growth +0.068%
assuming max odds 2.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.09%45.24%45.33%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.102.2750.00%46.93%47.62%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ben Shelton (Visit)
Prediction 54.65%1.83fair odd
EV +0.009%
Edge +0.005%
Kelly +0.011%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%54.76%54.67%57.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.701.701.8362.11%58.70%58.82%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joao Fonseca (Local): 45.35%; Ben Shelton (Visit): 54.65%. For Joao Fonseca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.94%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV +2.94%E +1.30%K +2.32%G +0.068% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -9.83%E -5.96%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -9.83%E -5.96%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 21:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV +2.04%E +0.906%K +1.63%G +0.033% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -10.37%E -6.33%K -16.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV +1.13%E +0.507%K +0.919%G +0.010% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV +1.13%E +0.507%K +0.919%G +0.010% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -0.230%E -0.104%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -0.230%E -0.104%K -0.191%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -12.01%E -7.46%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.56%EV -0.683%E -0.312%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.44%EV -3.82%E -2.17%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-09 21:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -2.50%E -1.16%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.27%E -1.85%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-09 21:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.50%E -1.16%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.50%E -1.16%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.64%E -4.52%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.50%E -1.16%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.64%E -4.52%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 21:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -2.95%E -1.38%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.46%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 21:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -3.40%E -1.60%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%EV -5.46%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 21:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.86%E -1.82%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.19%E -4.87%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-09 21:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -4.31%E -2.04%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -5.46%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -1.63%E -0.906%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.27%E -1.85%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.27%E -1.85%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 21:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 19:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 21:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 20:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.46%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 20:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.55%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-09 21:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-09 21:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.76%E -2.27%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.64%E -4.52%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.67%E -2.73%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -6.58%E -3.19%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -2.72%E -1.53%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -2.72%E -1.53%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 20:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.91%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-09 21:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 21:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 21:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 21:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 21:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 21:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 22:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 20:53 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.03%E -3.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.10%E -4.17%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-09 20:53 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -8.39%E -4.15%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -8.19%E -4.87%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-09 22:03 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -9.30%E -4.65%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +0.009%E +0.005%K +0.011%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 10:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -9.30%E -4.65%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.04%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-09 22:03 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 0.4% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 0.7% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 21:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.84% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16% | 1.8% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.43% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.57% | 2.6% | 2026-08-09 22:05 |