Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniil Medvedev v Botic van de Zandschulp

2026-08-05 22:00 UTC — ATP Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (17 en el análisis )

75%

25%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniil Medvedev (Local)

Predicción 75.10%1.33momio equitativo

EV -3.12%

Ventaja -2.42%

Kelly -10.76%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

73.53%75.37%75.00%77.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.221.261.261.2981.97%79.15%79.37%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Botic van de Zandschulp (Visitante)

Predicción 24.90%4.02momio equitativo

EV +8.56%

Ventaja +1.96%

Kelly +2.55%

Crecimiento +0.218%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

22.04%24.63%25.00%26.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

3.503.763.654.3628.57%26.60%27.40%22.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 75.10%; Botic van de Zandschulp (Visitante): 24.90%. Para Botic van de Zandschulp (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.02. 4 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.36, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +8.56%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
Pinnacle	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.86%EV -6.88%E -5.55%K -28.65%G +0.000%	4.36I 22.94%NM 22.14%EV +8.56%E +1.96%K +2.55%G +0.218%	3.6%	2026-08-05 07:55
Betclic (FR)	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +8.32%E +1.91%K +2.48%G +0.206%	4.3%	2026-08-05 07:50
DraftKings	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +4.58%E +1.09%K +1.43%G +0.066%	5.1%	2026-08-05 07:40
Coolbet	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV +2.09%E +0.510%K +0.674%G +0.014%	3.1%	2026-08-05 07:55
SportsBet	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.400%E -0.100%K -0.133%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 07:40
Mr Green (SE)	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.400%E -0.100%K -0.133%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 07:45
Bovada	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.400%E -0.100%K -0.133%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-05 07:56
FanDuel	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.89%E -0.741%K -0.996%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-05 07:40
NetBet (FR)	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -7.63%E -6.20%K -33.16%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -2.89%E -0.741%K -0.996%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-08-05 08:04
Dabble (AU)	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.37%E -4.27%K -20.67%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 08:04
Betr (AU)	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-05 07:55
PlayUp	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-05 08:04
Fanatics	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-05 07:39
Winamax (DE)	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.37%E -4.27%K -20.67%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-05 07:40
PointsBet (AU)	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-05 07:05
Tipico (DE)	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.38%E -6.87%K -38.08%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -5.38%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-05 07:20
1xBet	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000%	3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -5.63%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-05 07:45
BoyleSports	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-05 07:39
betfred_uk	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-05 07:10
Betway	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-05 07:40
Paddy Power	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-05 07:35
Sky Bet	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-05 07:35
GTbets	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -6.87%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-05 07:10
Marathon Bet	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -4.62%E -3.64%K -17.12%G +0.000%	3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -6.87%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:40
Casumo	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
TABtouch	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
Unibet (SE)	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
Unibet (NL)	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
Virgin Bet	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
Grosvenor	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
BetRivers	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
Unibet	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
LiveScore Bet	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
LeoVegas (SE)	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:14
Bally Bet	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
Svenska Spel	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
ATG (SE)	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
betPARX	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.87%E -3.03%K -13.83%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-05 07:15
Winamax (FR)	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-05 07:40
888sport	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 08:05
888sport (SE)	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 08:05
Hard Rock Bet	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.12%E -2.42%K -10.76%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-05 08:00
theScore Bet	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.37%E -4.27%K -20.67%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-05 07:35
Unibet (FR)	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-05 07:40
betano_uk	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-05 07:40
Bet Victor	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-05 07:39
ReBet	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.13%E -4.90%K -24.50%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-08-05 07:39
LeoVegas	1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -6.88%E -5.55%K -28.65%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-08-05 08:05
PMU (FR)	1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -5.37%E -4.27%K -20.67%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-08-05 07:14

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Matchbook	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%	4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%	0.8%	2026-08-05 07:55
Novig	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%	1.1%	2026-08-05 07:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%	1.3%	2026-08-05 07:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%	1.3%	2026-08-05 07:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.29I 77.52%NM 76.50%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%	1.3%	2026-08-05 07:55
Smarkets	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%	5.1%	2026-08-05 08:00