Language:English
Alexei Popyrin v Roman Andres Burruchaga
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexei Popyrin (Local)
Prediction 60.56%1.65fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -4.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%60.64%60.51%62.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.571.6165.79%63.43%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Roman Andres Burruchaga (Visit)
Prediction 39.44%2.54fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.832%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.029%
assuming max odds 2.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.44%39.36%39.49%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.382.5944.44%42.04%42.02%38.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexei Popyrin (Local): 60.56%; Roman Andres Burruchaga (Visit): 39.44%. For Roman Andres Burruchaga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.59, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.56%EV -6.13%E -3.96%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.44%EV +2.15%E +0.832%K +1.35%G +0.029% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.56%EV -6.13%E -3.96%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 37.44%EV +2.15%E +0.832%K +1.35%G +0.029% | 3.1% | 2026-08-04 16:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -4.32%E -2.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -0.607%E -0.241%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 16:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -6.13%E -3.96%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV -0.607%E -0.241%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 16:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -7.35%E -4.80%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -0.607%E -0.241%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 15:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.53%E -3.54%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.40%E -0.558%K -0.930%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 17:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -2.58%E -1.04%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 15:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -2.97%E -1.21%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 13:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.37%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 15:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.37%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 13:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.37%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 15:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.35%E -4.80%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -3.37%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 16:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -5.53%E -3.54%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.16%E -1.71%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 13:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 13:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 06:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.71%E -2.33%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 13:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.32%E -2.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 13:44 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.32%E -2.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 16:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 13:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 17:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 13:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.53%E -3.54%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.35%E -4.80%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-04 16:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.35%E -4.80%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.34%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-04 15:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -5.73%E -2.40%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -3.71%E -2.33%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 15:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -3.71%E -2.33%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 13:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -3.71%E -2.33%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 13:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -4.32%E -2.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 13:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 14:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 14:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 14:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 15:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 13:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 03:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 14:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 13:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%EV -6.13%E -3.96%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-04 13:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.35%E -4.80%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 15:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.35%E -4.80%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.13%E -2.58%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.32%E -2.73%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 15:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 13:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.13%E -3.96%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.13%E -3.96%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 16:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.13%E -3.96%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 14:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.13%E -3.96%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-04 16:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.95%E -5.23%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.31%E -3.11%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-04 07:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -8.50%E -3.66%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.50%E -1.55%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-04 11:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.11%E -1.94%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-02 14:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -3.71%E -2.33%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -9.28%E -4.04%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-02 14:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.92%E -3.14%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.26%E -5.00%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-04 11:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32% | 0.3% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.84% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.16% | 2.4% | 2026-08-04 17:10 |
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