Language:English
Nuno Borges v Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nuno Borges (Local)
Prediction 27.64%3.62fair odd
EV +3.67%
Edge +0.978%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.049%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.60%27.59%27.67%29.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.403.403.7530.77%29.41%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visit)
Prediction 72.36%1.38fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -11.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.96%72.41%72.33%74.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.311.3378.74%76.34%76.05%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuno Borges (Local): 27.64%; Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visit): 72.36%. For Nuno Borges (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.67%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +3.67%E +0.978%K +1.33%G +0.049% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 05:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.76%EV +0.626%E +0.172%K +0.237%G +0.001% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.24%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-15 08:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -1.86%E -0.525%K -0.730%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.75%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-15 07:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -1.86%E -0.525%K -0.730%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-15 08:43 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.24%E -0.927%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-15 08:46 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.24%E -0.927%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 08:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.24%E -0.927%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 05:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.24%E -0.927%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 07:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.24%E -0.927%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 07:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-15 08:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -3.52%E -1.01%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-15 08:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.50%EV -3.80%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.50%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-15 08:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-15 08:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-15 08:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -4.63%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -7.38%E -5.77%K -26.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-15 07:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.73%EV -4.90%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.27%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-15 07:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.58%EV -4.90%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.42%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-15 08:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -5.46%E -1.60%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-15 08:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 08:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-15 05:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-15 07:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-15 07:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-15 07:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-15 07:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-15 05:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-15 05:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-15 05:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-15 05:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 08:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 07:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 06:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.01%E -1.77%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -8.11%E -6.38%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-15 07:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 07:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.49%E -3.40%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-15 08:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.21%E -3.98%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 08:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-15 07:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-15 08:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -7.39%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -7.38%E -5.77%K -26.37%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-15 07:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 03:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 03:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 03:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-15 03:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 05:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 05:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 08:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-15 05:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -8.77%E -2.66%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -7.38%E -5.77%K -26.37%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-15 08:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.16%E -3.12%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.77%E -2.83%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-15 07:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.16%E -3.12%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.94%E -4.57%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-15 08:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.16%E -3.12%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-15 07:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -10.16%E -3.12%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.66%E -5.16%K -22.97%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-15 05:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 0.4% | 2026-04-15 08:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-04-15 08:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-04-15 08:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-04-15 08:50 |
| Novig◎ | 3.61I 27.70%NM 27.07% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.93% | 2.3% | 2026-04-15 08:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 2.4% | 2026-04-15 08:50 |