Language:English
Arthur Fils v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Arthur Fils (Local)
Prediction 52.43%1.91fair odd
EV +0.666%
Edge +0.347%
Kelly +0.723%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.47%53.01%52.70%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.781.771.9261.73%56.16%56.34%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 47.57%2.10fair odd
EV +4.65%
Edge +2.12%
Kelly +3.88%
Growth +0.180%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%46.99%47.30%50.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.991.982.2054.95%50.21%50.63%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arthur Fils (Local): 52.43%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 47.57%. For Lorenzo Musetti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -12.44%E -7.45%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +4.65%E +2.12%K +3.88%G +0.180% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -12.44%E -7.45%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +4.65%E +2.12%K +3.88%G +0.180% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 14:13 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -15.06%E -9.30%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +4.65%E +2.12%K +3.88%G +0.180% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -10.34%E -6.05%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV +2.28%E +1.06%K +1.98%G +0.045% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -13.49%E -8.18%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +2.28%E +1.06%K +1.98%G +0.045% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -13.49%E -8.18%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +2.28%E +1.06%K +1.98%G +0.045% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -7.20%E -4.07%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -0.103%E -0.049%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-17 14:13 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -12.44%E -7.45%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -0.103%E -0.049%K -0.094%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 14:13 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.87%E -6.39%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.87%E -6.39%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.87%E -6.39%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.87%E -6.39%K -15.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -12.44%E -7.45%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.20%E -4.07%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.20%E -4.07%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.25%E -4.71%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.30%E -5.37%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.30%E -5.37%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.03%EV +0.141%E +0.074%K +0.155%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.97%EV -5.34%E -2.68%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -2.48%E -1.33%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -6.76%E -3.45%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 14:11 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -2.48%E -1.33%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -6.76%E -3.45%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 14:12 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -4.58%E -2.52%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -7.24%E -3.71%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-17 14:07 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.25%E -4.71%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.24%E -3.71%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -9.30%E -5.37%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -7.24%E -3.71%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-17 14:13 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -1.96%E -1.05%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -7.71%E -3.98%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -2.48%E -1.33%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -7.71%E -3.98%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 14:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -3.00%E -1.62%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -8.19%E -4.24%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-17 14:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.141%E +0.074%K +0.155%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.14%E -4.79%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-17 14:07 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -0.383%E -0.202%K -0.426%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -9.62%E -5.06%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 14:07 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -0.383%E -0.202%K -0.426%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -9.62%E -5.06%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -1.96%E -1.05%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -9.62%E -5.06%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 14:01 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -3.00%E -1.62%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -9.62%E -5.06%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV +0.666%E +0.347%K +0.723%G +0.005% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 14:11 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.54%EV -3.53%E -1.92%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.46%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.05%E -2.21%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 14:07 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.05%E -2.21%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 14:07 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.05%E -2.21%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-17 14:01 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -4.05%E -2.21%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -11.04%E -5.91%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.56%EV -6.67%E -3.75%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.44%EV -13.42%E -7.38%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 0.6% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 0.6% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60% | 1.2% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.84% | 1.8% | 2026-04-17 14:14 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58% | 2.4% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03% | 5.8% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79% | 6.0% | 2026-04-17 14:15 |