La scuola delle quote

Arthur Fils v Lorenzo Musetti

Inizio: 2026-04-17 15:00 UTC

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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40 bookmaker (21 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Arthur Fils (Casa)

Previsione 52.43%1.91quota equa
EV +0.666%
Vantaggio +0.347%
Kelly +0.723%
Crescita +0.005%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.92

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
49.47%53.01%52.70%57.59%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.621.781.771.9261.73%56.16%56.34%52.08%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Lorenzo Musetti (Trasferta)

Previsione 47.57%2.10quota equa
EV +4.65%
Vantaggio +2.12%
Kelly +3.88%
Crescita +0.180%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.20

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
42.41%46.99%47.30%50.53%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.821.991.982.2054.95%50.21%50.63%45.45%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (40 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼MargineAggiornamento
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -12.44%E -7.45%K -18.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +4.65%E +2.12%K +3.88%G +0.180%5.3%2026-04-17 14:14
Caesars1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -12.44%E -7.45%K -18.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +4.65%E +2.12%K +3.88%G +0.180%5.3%2026-04-17 14:13
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -15.06%E -9.30%K -24.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +4.65%E +2.12%K +3.88%G +0.180%7.2%2026-04-17 14:14
FanDuel1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -10.34%E -6.05%K -14.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV +2.28%E +1.06%K +1.98%G +0.045%5.0%2026-04-17 14:14
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -13.49%E -8.18%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +2.28%E +1.06%K +1.98%G +0.045%7.1%2026-04-17 14:14
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -13.49%E -8.18%K -20.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV +2.28%E +1.06%K +1.98%G +0.045%7.1%2026-04-17 14:15
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -7.20%E -4.07%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -0.103%E -0.049%K -0.094%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-17 14:13
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -12.44%E -7.45%K -18.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -0.103%E -0.049%K -0.094%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 14:13
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.87%E -6.39%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 14:14
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.87%E -6.39%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 14:15
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.87%E -6.39%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 14:14
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.87%E -6.39%K -15.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 14:14
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -12.44%E -7.45%K -18.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -2.48%E -1.21%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-17 14:14
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.63%E -3.13%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 14:14
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.20%E -4.07%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 14:14
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.20%E -4.07%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 14:14
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.25%E -4.71%K -11.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 14:15
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.30%E -5.37%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 14:15
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.30%E -5.37%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.86%E -2.43%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 14:15
Pinnacle1.91I 52.36%NM 51.03%EV +0.141%E +0.074%K +0.155%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.97%EV -5.34%E -2.68%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-17 14:15
LowVig.ag1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -2.48%E -1.33%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -6.76%E -3.45%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 14:11
BetOnline.ag1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -2.48%E -1.33%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -6.76%E -3.45%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 14:12
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -4.58%E -2.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -7.24%E -3.71%K -7.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 14:07
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.25%E -4.71%K -11.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.24%E -3.71%K -7.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 14:14
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -9.30%E -5.37%K -12.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -7.24%E -3.71%K -7.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-17 14:13
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -1.96%E -1.05%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -7.71%E -3.98%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 14:15
Marathon Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -2.48%E -1.33%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -7.71%E -3.98%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 14:04
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -3.00%E -1.62%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -8.19%E -4.24%K -8.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 14:10
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.141%E +0.074%K +0.155%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.14%E -4.79%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-17 14:07
Bet Right1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -0.383%E -0.202%K -0.426%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -9.62%E -5.06%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 14:07
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -0.383%E -0.202%K -0.426%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -9.62%E -5.06%K -10.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 14:15
Codere (IT)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -1.96%E -1.05%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -9.62%E -5.06%K -10.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 14:01
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -3.00%E -1.62%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -9.62%E -5.06%K -10.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-17 14:15
SportsBet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV +0.666%E +0.347%K +0.723%G +0.005%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 14:11
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 50.54%EV -3.53%E -1.92%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.46%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 14:15
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.05%E -2.21%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 14:07
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.05%E -2.21%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 14:07
NetBet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -4.05%E -2.21%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -10.57%E -5.62%K -12.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 14:01
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -4.05%E -2.21%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -11.04%E -5.91%K -12.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 14:14
Winamax (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.56%EV -6.67%E -3.75%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.44%EV -13.42%E -7.38%K -16.37%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-17 14:15
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (7)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-04-17 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-04-17 14:15
Matchbook1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60%1.2%2026-04-17 14:15
ProphetX1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.84%1.8%2026-04-17 14:14
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%2.4%2026-04-17 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%5.8%2026-04-17 14:15
Novig1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%6.0%2026-04-17 14:15